China's industrial overcapacity: Michael Froman on whether it could trigger the next economic crisis

Michael Froman discusses U.S. options toward Iran, including the oil-price implications of a stronger blockade, before laying out his Foreign Affairs thesis that China's industrial overcapacity could trigger the next global economic crisis. He argues rising protectionism and China's huge manufacturing share make export-led growth unsustainable, with Chinese EVs, European autos, and China-dependent emerging markets especially exposed. - U.S. may strengthen blockade and sanctions on Iran and buyers of Iranian oil. - An effective extended blockade could shut in Iranian wells and raise oil prices. - China's overcapacity is running into rising protectionism in the U.S., Europe, and emerging economies. - China's 30% manufacturing share and EV overcapacity could collapse and hit Chinese growth. - Europe's auto sector is losing jobs and closing factories due to Chinese EV competition. - Emerging markets dependent on China and carrying debt are vulnerable to a China demand shock. - Froman warns the situation has the makings of a global financial crisis.