For Oil Markets, the Strait of Hormuz Isn’t Closed Says Blas

Summary

Javier Blas argues that official claims of nearly 9 million barrels a day crossing the Strait of Hormuz are plausible despite lower tracker estimates because many tankers go dark and satellite coverage is sparse. He explains that the market is starting to realize more oil is flowing than visible data show, reducing the perceived closure risk. Blas also details how ADNOC, hired tanker owners, and discounted Iraqi crude create high-risk profit opportunities.

• US Energy Secretary Chris Wright estimates almost 9 million barrels a day crossed Hormuz, versus trackers at 4-5 million.
• Blas says the higher figure is possible because many tankers turn off transponders and satellite coverage is limited.
• The oil market is starting to believe more crude is leaving Hormuz than visible data suggest.
• ADNOC is organizing many risky runs with its own and hired tankers, including Greek and South Korean owners.
• Crews face Iranian attack risk but can receive large bonuses.
• Iraq is offering a $30-per-barrel discount for loading crude inside the Persian Gulf.
• A full 2-million-barrel tanker could earn about $60 million in ten days.