Name: Housing 'Repeat Of 2008': Trader Warns Banks Will Need Bailouts | Todd Horwitz
Uploaded: 2026-06-26T21:08:34+00:00
Duration: 2050 s

Speakers

Todd Horwitz — Founder, bubbatrading.com

Summary

Todd Horwitz, chief strategist at BubbaTrading.com, discusses his bearish outlook for equities and oil while positioning long gold and grains. He warns of a potential housing crisis and expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates, and he details several tactical trades including a long gold/short Dow paired trade and selling the dollar.

Horwitz is short the S&P 500, calling the market overvalued and delusional with a technical top in place.
He remains short WTI crude oil, targeting a decline to the mid-$50s due to oversupply and weak demand.
He is long gold from $4,000, expecting a bounce to $4,400–$4,500 on safe-haven demand and oversold conditions.
He wants to sell the US technology sector, noting high-beta breakouts have already been cut in half.
He sees bottoming action in gold and grains, and believes an equity selloff will benefit the commodity space broadly.
He recommends selling the US Dollar Index based on chart resistance.
He advocates a long gold / short Dow Jones paired trade, citing mean reversion in the Dow-to-gold ratio.
He warns that housing markets resemble 2008 with risky lending, overextended inventory, and a risk of bank bailouts.

Ideas

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 0:00

Equities overvalued, technical top, selloff ahead.

The equity market is well overvalued and delusional, making lower highs and lower lows. The economy is weak, inflation is sticky, and rate hikes are coming. A 30-40% decline is needed for equities to catch up with the bad news already priced into gold.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 0:08

Oil glut and weak demand, targeting $50s.

Oil has a glut, demand is deteriorating with a weak economy, and production continues to run high. He expects WTI to fall to the mid-50s and remains short, with plans to cover and re-short near that level.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 2:45

Gold oversold, safe haven, rally to $4500.

Gold is oversold after a 25-30% decline from highs, has discounted higher interest rates, and is now attracting safe-haven flows as equities come under pressure. The $4,000 level is a solid whole-number support, setting up a rally toward $4,400–$4,500, where he will re-evaluate or lighten the position.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 12:53

Equity selloff will lift commodity prices.

Gold and grain markets are showing bottoming action, and an equity selloff will lift the entire commodity space as money rotates out of overvalued stocks.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 12:53

Grain markets showing bottoming action.

Grain markets are showing bottoming action, which suggests a tradable rebound as part of the broader commodity setup.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 14:15

Tech stocks overvalued, leading market down.

Tech stocks are extremely overvalued, and many high-beta names have already been cut in half, which usually leads the broader market lower. He wants to be a seller of tech and names like Nvidia.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 16:41

Mean reversion in Dow/gold ratio favors gold.

The Dow-to-gold ratio is well above its historical mean and is likely to mean-revert, implying outperformance of gold versus the Dow. He structures this as a paired trade: long gold and short Dow Jones.

Todd Horwitz Founder, bubbatrading.com 30:23

Sell dollar on chart resistance.

Based on the chart, the US Dollar Index looks like a sell at current levels, even though he does not normally trade it.

Housing 'Repeat Of 2008': Trader Warns Banks Will Need Bailouts | Todd Horwitz

Summary

Ideas

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