Why Capturing The Market’s Biggest Trends Means Embracing High Volatility | Takahe Capital

Summary

Moritz Seibert and Moritz Heiden of Takahe Capital discuss their high-octane trend-following strategies targeting 25-30% annualized volatility. They explain why letting winners run and avoiding dynamic sizing are key to capturing outlier trades like recent cocoa and gold moves. The conversation covers model design, the use of perpetual futures, and their current positioning across commodities, equities and crypto.

• Takahe Capital runs high-volatility trend-following (25-30% ann. vol) to capture outlier trades.
• Letting winners grow and not rebalancing dynamically is central to their approach.
• They trade a diversified portfolio of ~100 markets, including off-the-beaten-path instruments.
• Current positions: long precious metals, equities, petroleum, copper, bean oil, cotton; short BTC/ETH, cocoa, coffee, US nat gas.
• Spread trend-following systems have underperformed recently but are expected to recover.
• They view perpetual futures on platforms like Hyperliquid as interesting but not yet liquid enough for institutional use.
• Investors in higher-vol CTA funds seek long-term return potential and accept larger drawdowns.