The 10 Macro Signals That Still Support a Bull Market w/ Ryan Detrick
Speakers
Summary
- The speaker argues the bull market is intact despite recent volatility, citing healthy market breadth (advance/decline lines hitting highs) and robust credit markets (no stress in spreads).
- A "Tale of Two Markets" has emerged in early 2026: while Crypto and "Mag 7" tech stocks are down significantly (Mag 7 down 7% YTD), Energy, Materials, and International markets (South Korea +35%) are outperforming.
- Inflation is viewed as sticky in a "3% world" rather than returning to 2%, but the economy is re-accelerating with strong manufacturing and construction jobs data.
- The strategist sees the current sell-off in Software and Bitcoin as a capitulation event, creating a buying opportunity similar to previous cycle lows.
Trade Ideas
"We own some Bitcoin... If you overlaid software relative strength... with Bitcoin, they're like a perfect match... It probably will be an opportunity we look back a year from now." Bitcoin is trading as a high-beta proxy for the Software sector. Since the strategist views Software as oversold and at a valuation bottom, Bitcoin is implicitly at a similar bottom after its correction (from 126k to ~65k). LONG Bitcoin as a high-risk recovery play correlated to the software sector rebound. Regulatory crackdowns or a breakdown in the correlation with tech/software.
"South Korea is up 35%... Most European stock markets are up high single digits... We have a good deal of international exposure." The US market dominance (Mag 7) is fading as rotation occurs. International markets are breaking out to new highs after lagging for years. Capital is rotating from expensive US Tech to cheaper global cyclicals. LONG International Developed Markets (specifically South Korea and Europe). A strong US Dollar crushing international returns or a global recession.
"Energy... it's trading virtually where it was in 2008... Yet, it's starting just now to break out... 100% of all energy stocks are above their 200 day moving average." Energy has been dead money for 18 years (since 2008). A breakout from an 18-year base, combined with perfect technical breadth (100% > 200DMA), signals the start of a secular trend change, likely driven by sticky inflation and global growth. LONG Energy as a momentum and value breakout play. A sharp drop in oil prices due to demand destruction.
"Short interest on XLK has absolutely soared... Software companies have the lowest valuation since 2013... We actually added some little bit of software." The market has panic-sold software due to AI disruption fears (similar to the "Deep Seek" panic a year prior). High short interest combined with decade-low valuations creates a classic contrarian "short squeeze" and mean-reversion setup. LONG Software/Tech as a contrarian value play against extreme negative sentiment. AI actually does permanently destroy the business models of legacy software companies (the "Blockbuster" risk).
Ryan Detrick
Chief Market Strategist, Carson Group
"Industrials are leading... S&P 500 earnings on in the industrial sector... are up 26% right now year-over-year... Two months ago, right now, they expected to be down." When a sector shifts from expected negative growth to massive positive growth (26%), it indicates a fundamental economic re-acceleration that the market is currently pricing in. Leadership in cyclicals confirms a healthy economy, not a recession. LONG Industrials as a play on economic resilience and earnings surprises. A sudden economic rollover or manufacturing contraction.
Ryan Detrick
Chief Market Strategist, Carson Group
"We added gold... There have been periods of five to seven years throughout history where stocks and gold were higher together... Materials... haven't done all that well... doing good this year." In a "3% inflation world" (sticky inflation) with rising geopolitical tensions, hard assets like Gold and Materials act as necessary portfolio diversifiers that can perform alongside equities, unlike bonds which failed in 2022. LONG Gold and Materials for diversification and inflation protection. A return to disinflation (2% or lower) or a very hawkish Fed crushing commodity prices.
