Oil could top out between $105-$110 per barrel, Carley Garner Says

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  March 16, 2026 at 18:46  |  5:33  |  Bloomberg Markets

Summary

  • Oil market is experiencing extreme volatility, comparable only to 2020, which typically signals a market top.
  • Short-term price could spike to $105-$110 per barrel before a significant pullback and potential retest.
  • Analyst believes the rally is heavily driven by speculation, citing high volumes from crypto exchanges and commodity ETFs like USO, which distort price discovery.
  • Market structure is in steep backwardation (front-month ~$95 vs. December ~$75), indicating speculative froth.
  • A multi-year bear market preceded the recent spike, and a return to a bear market is expected, with a long-term target as low as the $30s or even under $20, based on a 20-year range.
  • Multiple supply sources are coming online (OPEC+, Venezuela, SPR releases, California rigs), working against sustained high prices.
Trade Ideas
Carley Garner Broker / Market Analyst 4:06
"I do believe that we eventually fall back into a bear market. And to be honest, I think we could be looking at much, much lower prices, maybe in the thirties... if history is our guide, we're probably gonna touch the low. And as crazy as it sounds, it's under $20 a barrel." The analyst views the current oil price surge as a speculative top fueled by fear and unconventional liquidity (e.g., crypto, ETFs). She cites fundamental pressures from multiple new supply sources (Venezuela, OPEC+, SPR, California rigs) and a historical price range suggesting a reversion to much lower levels. The USO ETF is explicitly named as a vehicle that attracts "hot money" and contributes to dysfunctional price action, making it a direct proxy for this overvalued, speculative move in crude oil. SHORT on USO as a direct play on the expectation that oil prices will collapse from current levels, reversing the speculative, fear-driven rally. An escalation or broadening of the Middle East conflict could send prices sharply higher in the short term, potentially above the $110 target. A major, sustained supply disruption could invalidate the bearish supply thesis. Prolonged fear and speculative fervor could delay the downturn.
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 16, 2026, features Carley Garner discussing USO. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Carley Garner  · Tickers: USO