OpenAI's Secret New "Dime" Device Was Leaked
Speakers
Summary
- OpenAI's rumored "Dime" hardware device, developed with Jony Ive, has likely been delayed until 2027 due to supply chain constraints.
- The primary bottleneck is High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which has seen cost increases of up to 5x, making the device economically unviable at current prices.
- OpenAI lacks a native hardware ecosystem (smartphone/OS), putting it at a severe disadvantage compared to Apple and Google, who own the distribution rails.
- Meta is successfully executing on AI hardware now (Ray-Bans), selling 2 million units while OpenAI's hardware roadmap stalls.
Trade Ideas
"OpenAI doesn't have an ecosystem yet... it needs to connect to one of these, an iPhone... OpenAI is entering a battle where the odds of them winning it are really low." OpenAI's hardware is delayed to 2027. Meanwhile, Meta has already sold 2 million AI smart glasses, and Apple is integrating AI directly into the iPhone (the dominant ecosystem). By the time OpenAI launches, the incumbents will have entrenched market share. OpenAI's lack of a proprietary phone/OS makes them dependent on the very competitors they are trying to disrupt. Long the incumbents (Apple/Meta) who own the distribution and are shipping product now, capitalizing on OpenAI's manufacturing delays. OpenAI achieves a "iPhone moment" breakthrough in 2027 that renders current hardware obsolete; regulatory breakup of Apple/Meta ecosystems.
Ejaaz Ahamadeen
Co-Host, Limitless Podcast (Bankless)
"Memory has become the most expensive component to build a GPU or anything hardware related. Um, it's driven the costs of custom computers up by like 5x in the last like 2 months." The delay of OpenAI's device is explicitly blamed on the skyrocketing cost and scarcity of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM). While this is a hurdle for hardware developers (OpenAI), it represents massive pricing power and demand for the memory manufacturers. Micron is the primary US-listed beneficiary of the HBM supercycle. Long memory producers as supply constraints drive pricing power. Cyclical downturn in memory demand outside of AI; faster-than-expected capacity expansion leading to oversupply.
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Speakers: Ejaaz Ahamadeen · Tickers: AAPL, META, MU