Former Israeli ambassador on Middle East conflict: Iranians are 'very good negotiators'

Summary

• Michael Oren expresses deep skepticism about the U.S.-Iran 15-point negotiation plan leading to a durable peace, citing ongoing rocket attacks in Israel despite U.S. declarations of victory.
• Key Israeli and U.S. war goals include: no nuclear facilities in Iran, no ballistic missile factories, an end to Iranian support for terrorist groups, and the removal of ~450kg of highly enriched uranium (enough for 11 bombs) to a third country.
• Israel has an additional demand to end heavy fighting in northern Israel, where Hezbollah continues rocket attacks.
• For the U.S., a critical outcome is opening the Straits of Hormuz to allow gas prices to fall further.
• Oren emphasizes that Iranians are "very, very good negotiators" who may drag out talks, water down objectives, and allow the regime to survive and rebuild its military capabilities.
• He suggests that conflict could recur in as little as five years if goals are not met, implying persistent geopolitical risk.
• Oren notes a potential regime change in Iran, with clerics eliminated and control possibly shifting to more pragmatic military figures like the IRGC, but remains cautious about fundamental behavioral shifts.
• Market implication: The hope for lower oil prices and stable markets based on negotiation optimism may be premature, with continued risk likely to sustain volatility in energy markets.