Trump Risks Imploding China Trade Truce With Iran Tariff | The Pulse 1/13

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 13, 2026 at 12:12  |  48:50  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Grace Peters — Head of Global Equities, J.P. Morgan Private Bank
Jeff Currie — CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group
Brendan Murray — Trade Reporter, Bloomberg
Sergio Ermotti — Group CEO, UBS
Paul Davies — Bloomberg Opinion Columnist
Sanam Vakil — Middle East and North Africa Programme Director, Chatham House

Summary

The video covers the Trump administration's pressure on the Fed and Iran, Japan's possible snap election, UBS leadership and Swiss banking-regulation debate, and bank earnings. Grace Peters of J.P. Morgan Private Bank outlines a fragmentation-driven, higher-inflation-volatility outlook favoring gold, hedge funds, infrastructure, US and European equities, China technology, and select sectors. Jeff Currie of Carlyle argues geopolitical risk and hoarding will drive oil, industrial metals, and other real assets higher while old-economy and European defense outperform high-tech. Iran tariffs and China trade-truce risks are also discussed.

  • Fed independence concerns rise after probe into Powell; Republican senators push back.
  • Japan PM reportedly plans snap election to seek a stronger mandate.
  • Grace Peters favors gold, hedge funds, infrastructure, US equities/cyclicals, China tech, and European second-half opportunities.
  • UBS CEO Ermotti plans to step down in 2027 as Swiss capital rules remain a political fight.
  • Trump threatens 25% tariffs on countries doing business with Iran, targeting China, UAE, and Turkey.
  • Iran protests and regime uncertainty raise regional and oil-market risk.
  • Jeff Currie sees hoarding and record short positioning setting up oil and industrial metals price spikes.
  • Old-economy rotation and European defense are favored; the AI trade may have peaked.
Ideas
Grace Peters Head of Global Equities, J.P. Morgan Private Bank 7:02
Hedge funds, infrastructure hedge inflation volatility.
Economic nationalism, geopolitical fragmentation, and fiscal activism are producing higher growth but also higher inflation and inflation volatility; she brings these risks together through assets such as hedge funds and infrastructure.
Grace Peters Head of Global Equities, J.P. Morgan Private Bank 10:42
US cyclicals favored on fiscal boost.
Higher US growth and inflation from fiscal spending and tax rebates should support the cyclical parts of the market, which she expects to continue doing quite well.
Grace Peters Head of Global Equities, J.P. Morgan Private Bank 11:36
China technology offers broad opportunity.
China's economy is bottoming and its property problem is well known; its technological advancement, especially across AI and manufacturing, creates a broad opportunity in China technology even though it is not a large allocation.
Grace Peters Head of Global Equities, J.P. Morgan Private Bank 11:48
EM opportunities from US-China shift.
The evolving US-China relationship creates interesting opportunities in emerging markets, though the US remains her preferred market over EM.
Grace Peters Head of Global Equities, J.P. Morgan Private Bank 11:54
US remains preferred equity market.
The US remains her preferred market because its growth profile is stronger out of the gate, even though Europe and EM offer interesting opportunities later.
Grace Peters Head of Global Equities, J.P. Morgan Private Bank 11:57
Europe improves in second half.
The US cyclical boost in the first half could reach Europe in the second half through spending, and a bottoming China would support European sentiment and earnings.
Grace Peters Head of Global Equities, J.P. Morgan Private Bank 12:14
European defense spending remains key.
Defense names remain key for her in Europe as government spending and defense budgets support the sector.
Grace Peters Head of Global Equities, J.P. Morgan Private Bank 12:18
China bottoming helps European luxury, mining, industrials.
A bottoming Chinese economy would be positive for European sentiment and earnings, particularly for luxury goods, mining companies, and industrials.
Grace Peters Head of Global Equities, J.P. Morgan Private Bank 13:02
Watch oil on Iran supply risk.
Oil is the area of broad consensus and is worth watching closely because Middle East and Iran tensions could affect oil prices and production, especially through Strait of Hormuz flows, while Venezuela is less of a near-term supply issue.
Grace Peters Head of Global Equities, J.P. Morgan Private Bank 13:47
Gold is ultimate geopolitical hedge.
Gold remains the ultimate geopolitical hedge as central banks, institutions, and private clients seek to reduce overweight US dollar exposures; she has high conviction that gold will reach 5300.
Brendan Murray Trade Reporter, Bloomberg 27:44
Watch soybeans on China trade truce.
Soybean prices plunged after Trump's Iran-tariff post because China reacted unfavorably, and soybeans are a gauge of the health of the US-China trade relationship, making them worth watching as the tariff threat risks the trade truce.
Jeff Currie CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group 41:28
Geopolitics drives real asset hoarding.
Geopolitical risk is making dollars and underground/foreign oil and raw materials dangerous to hold, similar to the post-Russia asset-freeze demand for gold; China and others will want oil and raw materials above ground, driving hoarding and higher real asset prices.
Jeff Currie CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group 41:50
Oil set for short-squeeze spike.
The oil market went in record short on a supply-glut narrative, but demand is picking up, geopolitical risk is at an all-time high, China may take floating storage/hoard, and Iranian supply cannot return quickly, creating a recipe for an oil price spike.
Jeff Currie CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group 43:09
Copper, industrial metals keep rising.
Raw industrial materials are showing tightness, rising input costs, and inventory restocking demand, and the hoarding dynamic that drove gold is already appearing in industrial metals; he expects copper and industrial metals to keep going higher.
Jeff Currie CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group 46:11
Old economy rotation gains steam.
The market is in a rotation out of the new economy and high-tech into the old economy, commodities, and basic industrials; the AI trade appears to have peaked in Q4 last year and old-economy leadership should get bigger.
Jeff Currie CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group 46:24
AI trade may have peaked.
The AI trade looks like it peaked in the fourth quarter of last year as capital rotates out of new economy and high-tech into old economy, commodities, and basic industrials.
Jeff Currie CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group 46:37
European defense benefits from existential threat.
Europe faces an existential threat that is forcing political change and defense spending; markets are beginning to price it in, and European defense is part of the broader old-economy rotation.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 13, 2026, features Grace Peters, Brendan Murray, Jeff Currie discussing Hedge funds, PAVE, US cyclicals, CQQQ, EEM, SPY, VGK, European Defense, European luxury goods, European mining companies, European industrials, WTI, GLD, SOYB, DBC, COPPER, DBB, Old economy sectors, XLI, AI-SECTOR, XLK. 17 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Grace Peters, Brendan Murray, Jeff Currie  · Tickers: Hedge funds, PAVE, US cyclicals, CQQQ, EEM, SPY, VGK, European Defense, European luxury goods, European mining companies, European industrials, WTI, GLD, SOYB, DBC, COPPER, DBB, Old economy sectors, XLI, AI-SECTOR, XLK