Name: Will interest rates rise in September? Washington hasn't changed | Han Sang-hee, Hanwha Investment & Securities Senior Research Fellow [Global Interview]
Uploaded: 2026-08-31T22:35:39+00:00
Duration: 1965 s

Speakers

Han Sang-hee — Senior Research Commissioner, Hanwha Investment & Securities

Summary

Han Sang-hee reviews August performance and lays out a September outlook centered on the FOMC. He argues the market is misreading Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech as hawkish and that a September rate hike is unlikely. He expects equities to be strong early in September before a late-month correction, sees fading oil war-risk premium, and notes Samsung Electronics and SK hynix buybacks are supporting Korean semiconductor shares.

August returns were not as bad as perceived: S&P 500 +3%, KOSPI +3.5%, and foreign KOSPI investors gained about 7% in USD terms on currency moves.
September is expected to show a high-early, low-later pattern around the FOMC.
Han argues Warsh's Jackson Hole speech was not genuinely more hawkish and a September rate hike is unlikely.
Government liquidity measures, buybacks, and bond-market positioning are key near-term policy and market drivers.
War-related news is seen as having a diminishing impact on crude oil, limiting geopolitical oil upside.
Korean semiconductor shares are being supported by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix buybacks.
US tech rotation is fast, with security software making new highs while memory and semis still lag below prior highs.

Ideas

Han Sang-hee Senior Research Commissioner, Hanwha Investment & Securities 2:48

Equities strong early September, then correction

He expects a high-early, low-later September for equities: stocks are likely to remain supported into the mid-September FOMC as the bond market eventually accepts that the Fed will not hike and liquidity remains supportive, but after a likely rate freeze with no increase in asset purchases, a period or price correction could follow into late September.

Han Sang-hee Senior Research Commissioner, Hanwha Investment & Securities 3:01

September Fed hike unlikely; Treasury yields stabilize

He argues that markets are misreading Warsh's Jackson Hole speech as hawkish and that a September Fed hike is unlikely because inflation and employment trends do not justify it; the government is actively trying to ease liquidity and lower rates, so Treasury yields should stabilize or decline into the FOMC, putting bond-market shorts at risk.

Han Sang-hee Senior Research Commissioner, Hanwha Investment & Securities 22:46

War risk premium in oil fading

War-related news is having a diminishing impact on oil prices; WTI remains around $85 and has been making lower highs versus the earlier $120 spike, while Hormuz tanker traffic has partially recovered, so the geopolitical risk premium in crude looks limited and oil is not attractive to chase on war headlines.

Han Sang-hee Senior Research Commissioner, Hanwha Investment & Securities 29:26

Samsung and SK hynix buybacks support shares

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix buybacks are clearly supporting supply/demand in Korean semiconductor shares, helping late-session rebounds and offering a company-specific floor even while memory names remain well below their previous highs.

Han Sang-hee Senior Research Commissioner, Hanwha Investment & Securities 31:13

Security software leads tech rotation

Within the fast US tech rotation, security software is showing the strongest trend and keeps making new highs, while big tech has smaller drawdowns and semiconductors are lagging after their prior surge, implying relative strength in security software.

Will interest rates rise in September? Washington hasn't changed | Han Sang-hee, Hanwha Investment & Securities Senior Research Fellow

Summary

Ideas

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