Powell's Reappointment, Will It Trip Up Kevin Warsh? The Impact of Prolonged War Possibility and Retreating Interest Rate Cut Expectations on the Market | Seo Dong-ju, Kim Dong-hwan, Kim Je-yi Blockmedia Editor-in-Chief [Crypto PLUS]
Speakers
Kim Je-yi
— Editor-in-Chief, Blockmedia
Summary
Blockmedia Editor-in-Chief Kim Je-yi discussed the latest FOMC decision, Powell's decision to remain on the Fed board, Kevin Warsh's confirmation, and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions. He argued that delayed rate cuts, a prolonged war risk, and Powell's shadow role are pressuring Bitcoin while lifting oil. The episode also covered new U.S. election prediction market ETFs from Roundhill and GraniteShares, Hyperliquid's entry into prediction markets, and the uncertain CLARITY Act stablecoin markup.
- The FOMC held rates, but an 8-4 vote revealed three hawkish dissents and cut expectations fell.
- Powell will stay on as Fed governor, creating a shadow-chair issue for Kevin Warsh.
- U.S.-Iran tensions and blockade preparation pushed WTI and Brent crude higher.
- Bitcoin fell toward $75k on war risk, Powell's retention, and delayed rate-cut expectations.
- Roundhill and GraniteShares plan first U.S. election prediction market ETFs.
- Hyperliquid, Kalshi, and Polymarket are expanding into each other's markets.
- The CLARITY Act stablecoin markup may be scheduled in May, but DeFi and ethics issues remain unresolved.
Ideas
Bitcoin pressured by war, Powell, delayed cuts.
Bitcoin is under near-term downside pressure because three negative drivers hit at once: renewed signs of a prolonged U.S.-Iran war and oil spike, Powell's decision to stay on as Fed governor creating a shadow-chair role over Kevin Warsh, and fading rate-cut expectations after the FOMC's hawkish 8-4 split. The speaker notes Bitcoin fell from around $77-78k toward $75k and dropped about $1,000 when the three hawkish dissents became known, with a break below $75k looking possible.
Prolonged Iran war risk lifts oil.
Oil is biased higher because the U.S.-Iran conflict may be prolonged: Trump posted a hard-line message and reportedly told officials to prepare for a long blockade, while Iran's proposal was rejected. WTI rose nearly 7% and Brent nearly 6%, with nearby Brent futures touching around $120 and later contracts settling near $110, showing that geopolitical risk premium remains in crude.
Prediction-market ETFs support digital-asset institutionalization.
The launch of the first U.S. election prediction market ETFs by Roundhill and GraniteShares, along with Hyperliquid's zero-fee entry into prediction markets and Kalshi/Polymarket moving into perpetual futures, shows event-contract trading is becoming formalized in traditional finance. The speaker views this as a positive structural development for the digital-asset market because a crypto-native event model is entering the institutional financial system, though it also raises concerns about money-weighted election influence.
