Ideas
US equities likely topping; avoid market.
The US equity market has a high probability of topping. Market leadership is rolling over, especially parts of the Magnificent Seven such as Apple and Microsoft; Apple is very expensive with insufficient growth, and Nvidia cannot keep growing at its past rate without taking over the entire global equity market. There does not need to be a catalyst because buyers can simply run out.
Apple expensive, lacks growth, rolling over.
Apple looks like it is rolling over. It is very expensive on a fundamental basis and does not have the growth to support that valuation, so with no new buyers it is vulnerable.
Nvidia growth rate unsustainable; avoid.
Nvidia cannot continue to grow at the rate it has over the last three years unless it takes over the entire world equity market. The stock's growth trajectory is unsustainable, making it vulnerable despite its growth.
Short-term Treasuries attractive cash parking.
With heavy Treasury supply and rollovers, Treasury rates are likely to stay relatively high for at least six months. Short-term Treasuries/T-bills around 5% are a good place to park cash and earn a return while waiting for better opportunities.
Central-bank buying supports gold.
Gold is a preferred hedge after cash and should continue moving higher because central banks, Chinese retail investors, and wealthy Middle East/Asian families are buying it for de-dollarization, dollar weaponization, Chinese economic/Taiwan/banking worries, and Trump tariff threats may accelerate moves away from the dollar. Central banks are price-sensitive but not momentum buyers; dollar reserves have fallen from about 80% to 54% and can keep falling; China resumed buying.
Gold miners undervalued; await money return.
Gold stocks are remarkably undervalued relative to gold, cheap versus their own history, underowned, and trading at low price-to-NAV/cash-flow multiples while margins and free cash flow are expanding. North American investors have been selling, but when generalist/institutional money returns to the sector, gold stocks should see dramatic outperformance.
Agnico cheap, high-quality gold miner.
Agnico Eagle is a favorite example: it is now the second-largest gold miner with no particular jurisdiction/hair issues like Barrick, trades at about 9.5x price to cash flow in the lowest decile of its historical multiple, and should benefit as margins expand and multiples re-rate with the gold price.
Favor senior gold miners over juniors.
He favors senior gold miners over juniors because new institutional/generalist money entering the gold sector goes first to large caps. Junior miners are less attractive broadly because many are lifestyle or quasi-lifestyle companies and the sector has not had a washout yet, leaving a long way to go.
Copper stocks are cheap.
Copper stocks are attractive within commodity equities because they are cheap.
Oil and gas stocks reasonably valued.
Oil and gas stocks, though perhaps not Canadian ones, still offer reasonable value.
Commodity stocks offer value.
Other commodity stocks generally offer reasonable value and are part of the value opportunities he sees outside expensive US growth equities.
Smaller global markets offer value.
Some smaller markets around the world offer good value; as a bottom-up investor he is finding opportunities in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Brazil.
UK value despite bad government.
Britain has a horrible/disastrous government and economic policies, causing wealthy people to leave, but some British stocks are very good values. Exporters are especially helped by a weaker pound because costs are local while revenue is in stronger currencies.
Buy lagging high-yield US income stocks.
He is buying good-quality US income stocks that have lagged, with yields around 7-9%, as attractive defensive/value exposure.
Gold royalties low-risk foundation.
Major gold royalties—Franco-Nevada, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Royal Gold—form the foundation of his gold portfolios because they are low risk and still offer upside with the gold market. They may not be the best performers or 10-baggers, but they should rise with the market with lower risk.
This The David Lin Report video, published January 28, 2025,
features Adrian Day
discussing SPY, MAGS, AAPL, NVDA, SHY, GLD, GDX, AEM, GDXJ, Copper stocks, XLE, GSG, EWH, Singapore stocks, EWZ, EWU, US income stocks, FNV, RGLD, WPM.
15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Adrian Day
· Tickers:
SPY,
MAGS,
AAPL,
NVDA,
SHY,
GLD,
GDX,
AEM,
GDXJ,
Copper stocks,
XLE,
GSG,
EWH,
Singapore stocks,
EWZ,
EWU,
US income stocks,
FNV,
RGLD,
WPM
