Yen Rises Sharply With Traders on Intervention Watch | The Asia Trade 8/3/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 03, 2026 at 04:32  |  1:35:16  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Mark Cranfield — Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg
Julia Wong — North Asia CIO, Nomura International Wealth Management
Robert Lee — Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Louise Loo — Head of Asia Economics, Oxford Economics
Bill Dudley — Senior Advisor, Bloomberg Economics
Haidi Stroud-Watts — Anchor, Bloomberg
Paul Allen — Reporter, Bloomberg

Summary

The episode centers on the first joint US-Japan yen intervention in 15 years, driving USD/JPY sharply lower to near 155. It also covers Trump halting strikes on Iran, pulling oil lower, volatile KOSPI trading, and a deepening AI price war as DeepSeek cuts token costs. Strategists offer opposing yen views and discuss relative value in Japan and China tech.

  • Japan and the US conduct first joint intervention in 15 years; yen strengthens past 156.
  • Trump cancels Iran military strikes, new negotiations to begin Monday; oil slides.
  • DeepSeek releases V4-Flash model and cuts API token prices up to 50%, escalating China's AI price war.
  • KOSPI falls over 5% after Friday's 18% rebound; retail investors frustrated with volatility.
  • Mark Cranfield sees a pivotal moment for yen, expecting possible break below 155.
  • Julia Wang expects USD/JPY to grind higher once intervention fades, due to rate differentials.
  • Robert Lee likens China AI model sector to solar, sees large-cap Alibaba and Tencent as consolidation winners.
Ideas
Mark Cranfield Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg 3:59
Yen could break 155, carry trade unwinds
Coordinated US-Japan intervention with strong commitment to further action could push USD/JPY below 155, breaking the yen carry trade narrative. Expectations for earlier BOJ rate hikes are rising, adding to yen strength. This is a pivotal moment; if authorities succeed, the yen will no longer be an easy short. If they fail, dollar-yen returns to carry trade and higher levels.
USD/JPY HIGH
Julia Wong North Asia CIO, Nomura International Wealth Management 57:02
KOSPI volatility remains a significant headwind
KOSPI remains a headwind due to persistent high volatility and leverage overhang after the recent washout. Fundamentals have changed slightly, with more risk emerging looking towards 2027, making the market less positive than earlier this year.
EWY MED
Julia Wong North Asia CIO, Nomura International Wealth Management 59:46
China AI hardware benefits from global capex
China hardware space that feeds into the global AI supply chain will continue to benefit from strong global capex. This segment offers the most visibility in terms of earnings growth within Chinese equities.
China AI hardware stocks MED
Julia Wong North Asia CIO, Nomura International Wealth Management 60:36
Buy Chinese large-cap tech on weakness
Chinese large-cap tech stocks have risen but there is still some upside. Companies able to monetize AI are being rewarded; buying into weakness is the preferred strategy within China.
KWEB MED
Robert Lee Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence 92:11
Alibaba and Tencent to win AI shakeout
China's AI model sector is in a race-to-the-bottom, similar to solar, with nearly 1,000 competing models and intense price competition that will keep the sector unprofitable for years. The best capitalized companies with the largest R&D resources—Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei—are best placed to survive the inevitable shakeout and win.
BABA 0700.HK HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 03, 2026, features Mark Cranfield, Julia Wong, Robert Lee discussing USD/JPY, EWY, China AI hardware stocks, KWEB, BABA, 0700.HK. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Mark Cranfield, Julia Wong, Robert Lee  · Tickers: USD/JPY, EWY, China AI hardware stocks, KWEB, BABA, 0700.HK