Claude Opus 4.5’s Breakout Moment & Investing in 2026 with Qiao Wang
Speakers
Qiao Wang
— Co-founder, Alliance DAO
Jason Yanowitz
— Co-Founder, Blockworks
Summary
Qiao Wang joins Empire to discuss how AI tools like Claude Opus 4.5 are reshaping software development and startup economics. He explains his investment framework for 2026, including large positions in Google and Bitcoin, a cash-heavy stance, and views on Adobe, Meta, Tencent, Amazon, Coinbase, Robinhood, Tesla, and Eli Lilly. The conversation also covers AI-enabled biotech, individualized advertising, and the durability of large-cap tech moats.
- Qiao Wang describes Claude Opus 4.5 as a breakout AI coding and chat model that can one-shot complex projects and blur chatbot/coding boundaries.
- AI productivity is changing startup hiring and software moats, with early-stage startups facing weaker defensibility.
- Qiao is long Google, Adobe, Meta, Tencent, Amazon, Coinbase, and keeps a large Bitcoin position, while avoiding altcoins, Robinhood, and Tesla.
- He holds about 40% cash and views the U.S. dollar as the only attractive broad asset class due high valuations and euphoric sentiment.
- He likes Tencent over Alibaba, Coinbase over Robinhood, and watches AI-enabled biotech despite lacking a specific vehicle.
- The episode also touches on AI-driven personalized marketing, Big Tech moats, health, and Alliance's investment process.
Ideas
Apple and Microsoft moats survive AI coding.
AI coding agents won't kill large incumbents because their moats remain durable. Apple has its developer ecosystem, and Microsoft has PC/enterprise integration, switching costs, and mission-critical software that enterprises are unlikely to abandon.
Adobe mispriced; enterprise switching costs protect it.
Adobe is mispriced because the market fears new video and image models will kill it, but its real moat is enterprise integration and high switching costs: creative professionals store assets in Adobe's cloud, have years of Photoshop muscle memory, and enterprises are unlikely to switch mission-critical creative software. He considers it cheap for a high-quality company and has put on a small long position.
Google search moat and AI infra undervalued.
Google's search castle is intact because more than half of search revenue comes from shopping, which ChatGPT was not killing, and his own usage showed Chrome, YouTube, and Gemini are all Google. He also saw GCP and TPU as underappreciated. Google was his biggest trade last year and remains his largest stock holding.
Meta's AI ad targeting is bullish.
AI is a bull case for Meta/Facebook because AI will improve its advertising algorithm and make ads much better and more individualized. This should strengthen Meta's core ad business over time.
Cash and dollars defensive amid high valuations.
He is not all-in on risk assets and is about 40% in cash because sentiment is euphoric and valuations are near historical highs, even though better margins and money debasement can justify some of that. Looking at asset classes broadly, he thinks nothing is attractive except the U.S. dollar. He sleeps better with this defensive stance.
Hold Bitcoin, avoid altcoins for now.
He still holds a lot of Bitcoin, roughly 50/50 with stocks in his non-cash portfolio, but this is not his ideal portfolio because selling Bitcoin would trigger a large tax bill. By contrast, crypto tokens excluding Bitcoin are not attractive yet, and he holds less than 1% there; he expects a better entry similar to 2022 later.
Hold Bitcoin, avoid altcoins for now.
He still holds a lot of Bitcoin, roughly 50/50 with stocks in his non-cash portfolio, but this is not his ideal portfolio because selling Bitcoin would trigger a large tax bill. By contrast, crypto tokens excluding Bitcoin are not attractive yet, and he holds less than 1% there; he expects a better entry similar to 2022 later.
Prefer Tencent over Alibaba on quality.
Tencent is a boring old Chinese company but a really good company that he owns, and he likes it much more than Alibaba right now. Alibaba may be ahead in AI, but its retail/e-commerce business is very competitive, making Tencent the preferred Chinese internet exposure.
Prefer Tencent over Alibaba on quality.
Tencent is a boring old Chinese company but a really good company that he owns, and he likes it much more than Alibaba right now. Alibaba may be ahead in AI, but its retail/e-commerce business is very competitive, making Tencent the preferred Chinese internet exposure.
Amazon robotics and weak sentiment drive upside.
He owns Amazon. Valuation is not super attractive, but sentiment was poor last year because other Magnificent Seven names had run and Amazon had not. He likes the robotics story: Amazon is leading in robotics and could be the first big company with more robotic than human employees, with human headcount flat and robot headcount growing 20-30%, helping margins. He frames it as a 10-year hold.
Eli Lilly trade, not long-term hold.
He still holds a small Eli Lilly position, but treats it as a trade rather than a long-term hold because he does not understand the 10-year pharma outlook well enough. Despite its patent, Eli Lilly faces many competitors, including cheap and effective gray-market Chinese peptides that compete directly with GLP-1 drugs.
AI biotech overlooked but lacks specific thesis.
He thinks AI-enabled biotech is one of the most overlooked areas in the market. While everyone focuses on robots, drones, and AI chatbots, bio is one of the areas where AI can have the biggest impact, pointing to DeepMind. He does not yet have a specific investment thesis or vehicle.
Tesla too expensive to own.
When asked whether he holds Tesla or Rivian, he said no and specifically called Tesla too expensive. This is a valuation-based avoid stance, not an active short.
Coinbase attractive valuation and bank endgame.
He owns Coinbase. On valuation, he finds Coinbase more attractive than Robinhood, though neither is super attractive. He sees Coinbase's endgame as becoming a bank or everything financial app: Coinbase One and the MX card got him back into Coinbase, and it has expanded into stocks and prediction markets.
Robinhood too expensive; stay away.
Robinhood is too expensive right now. Even though he thinks both Robinhood and Coinbase will do well and that the everything financial app is happening with Robinhood, valuation makes Coinbase more attractive and Robinhood unattractive at current levels.
Up Next
This Empire video, published January 12, 2026, features Qiao Wang discussing AAPL, MSFT, ADBE, GOOG, META, CASH, UUP, BTC, Crypto tokens ex-Bitcoin, TCEHY, BABA, AMZN, LLY, AI-enabled biotech, TSLA, COIN, HOOD. 15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Qiao Wang · Tickers: AAPL, MSFT, ADBE, GOOG, META, CASH, UUP, BTC, Crypto tokens ex-Bitcoin, TCEHY, BABA, AMZN, LLY, AI-enabled biotech, TSLA, COIN, HOOD