Freight demand surges as tariff window sparks imports and higher spot rates

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 12, 2026 at 12:39  |  1:25  |  CNBC
Speakers
Frank Holland — Reporter, CNBC

Summary

CNBC’s Frank Holland reports that the Logistics Manager Index inventory level has fallen to a record low of 35 as companies await Supreme Court rulings on tariffs. Industry executives expect a surge of imports if the tariff window opens, which could lift freight demand and spot rates. The report highlights spot rates breaking out above contract rates and describes a perfect storm for COVID-like freight conditions, a potential tailwind for transportation, logistics, and motor carriers.

  • Dow Transports traded at a record high, up almost 5% this year.
  • The Logistics Manager Index inventory level hit a record low of 35, below pandemic levels.
  • Companies waited for the Supreme Court tariff ruling before ordering.
  • A tariff window could trigger a surge of imports similar to last year.
  • Industry executives expect rising freight demand and higher spot rates.
  • Spot rates are surging and breaking out above contract rates.
  • The setup was described as a perfect storm for COVID-like freight conditions.
Ideas
Frank Holland Reporter, CNBC 0:13
Record-low inventory signals transportation upside.
The Logistics Manager Index inventory levels have fallen to a record low of 35, below pandemic-era levels, because companies waited for the Supreme Court tariff ruling. If tariffs are struck down, the administration has said it would use other methods to restore them, but many executives expect companies to use the tariff window to bring in a surge of imports similar to last year. That should lift freight demand and spot rates, which could signal much more upside for transportation and logistics stocks and the Dow Jones Transportation Average.
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This CNBC video, published January 12, 2026, features Frank Holland discussing IYT. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Frank Holland  · Tickers: IYT