The U.S. Can Never Be Stopped; Once Controls Start, the Market Grows Bigger | Noh Geun-chang, CEO of Semicon Research Lab

"미국 절대 못 멈춰" 통제 시작하면, 시장은 더 커진다ㅣ노근창 세미콘리서치랩 대표 [더블 업]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 14, 2026 at 01:24  |  27:08  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Noh Geun-chang — Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center

Summary

Noh Geun-chang, CEO of Semicon Research Lab, argues that the recent AI speed-control scare is sentiment noise rather than a structural break. He remains constructive on AI semis and memory because security/AI performance needs are rising, memory ASP mix should improve from Q3, and data center power demand is set to triple. He also sees a multi-year semiconductor equipment order backdrop, networking demand, and a faster hyperscaler free-cash-flow inflection.

  • AI speed-control concerns are framed as noise, not a structural AI slowdown.
  • Memory spot prices are small relative to the DRAM market; product crossover and blended ASP are the key metrics.
  • Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are presented with memory-cycle upside and valuation targets.
  • US data center power demand is expected to grow from about 40GW toward 120GW by 2030.
  • Semiconductor equipment suppliers are seen benefiting from record multi-year capex and Chinese equipment bottlenecks.
  • Nvidia and custom AI ASIC camps are both expected to grow as data center demand expands.
  • Hyperscaler free cash flow and Google joint-venture economics are cited as potential positive catalysts.
Ideas
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 0:31
AI speed-control fears are noise.
Global semiconductor capex is record and multi-year from TSMC and the memory three, so equipment suppliers should prioritize those customers over Chinese memory makers CXMT/YMTC; China's capacity expansion plans face US blacklists and an equipment bottleneck. Equipment makers therefore have a strong five-year order backdrop.
SMH HIGH
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 10:24
Samsung memory upcycle supports 440,000 won target.
Memory spot pricing is no longer a good barometer because spot is only 1-2% of the DRAM market; product crossover to HBM4, LPDDR6, DDR6 and GDDR7 should lift blended ASP, and leading suppliers' planned ASP should start outpacing market spot from Q3. Won strength may trim won-based estimates, but premium mix should keep operating profit rising. The cycle is longer because memory is increasingly sold in racks/systems to sovereign AI, neoclouds and enterprise customers, so valuation should blend PBR and PER rather than rely on PBR alone. His target is 440,000 won, with next-year book value around 180,000 won.
005930.KS HIGH
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 10:24
SK hynix target is 3.3M won.
SK hynix benefits from the same memory ASP/mix improvement and HBM margins: HBM long-term agreement price increases have lagged spot, which helps margins, and the cycle is longer as memory is sold in racks/systems and to sovereign AI, neocloud and enterprise customers. His target is 3.3M won; next-year book value above 1M won makes the 1.5M won area look less intimidating on a PBR 1.5x basis.
000660.KS HIGH
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 14:21
Cisco orders up 4.5x on networking.
Cisco's orders are up 4.5x because AI data centers need networking to connect with each other, not just chips; the buildout from 40GW to 120GW of US data center power capacity directly increases networking demand.
CSCO MED
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 16:03
Data center power demand triples.
The speaker sees AI, power and energy as the main growth areas; US data center power use is about 40GW and internal analyses suggest it must reach 120GW by 2030, while Microsoft alone is tripling its 2GW AI data center footprint. That implies sustained demand for power/energy and data center infrastructure.
AI-SECTOR MED
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 17:24
Hyperscaler free cash flow inflects next year.
Hyperscaler free cash flow should inflect as EBITDA grows: data center payback is 2-3 years, GPUs are pre-booked, operating margins are in the mid-to-high 30s, and financing activities bridge the capex gap. He expects the free-cash-flow transition to arrive sooner than feared, possibly next year.
SKYY MED
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 18:40
Google JVs drive EBITDA inflection.
Google's two joint ventures, one with Blackstone and one with Blackstone, Apollo and Broadcom, could generate $50-60B of sales by 2027 and have a 2028 target of $250B at 60% operating margin, potentially turning Google EBITDA positive by Q2/Q3 next year.
GOOGL LOW
Noh Geun-chang Center Head, Hyundai Motor Securities Research Center 19:54
Nvidia and custom ASICs both grow.
Nvidia's hyperscaler revenue growth may slow as Google TPU, Amazon Annapurna and other custom accelerators/CPUs gain share, but non-hyperscale data center demand from sovereign AI, neoclouds and enterprises is growing rapidly and accepts Nvidia pricing. As US data center power capacity triples, both Nvidia and the custom-ASIC camp can grow.
NVDA Custom AI ASICs HIGH
Up Next
3:13:21
[September 14 #BeforeMarketOpen] New York stocks rebound for the first time in 5 days on oil price decline and CPI relief / 86% probability of a September rate hike, what will the FOMC decide? / The suddenly emerging theory of AI speed adjustment
815 Money Talk (815머니톡) · Sep 14
51:49
Disappearing in Fear" Should I Go In Now? | Lee Ji-eun, CEO of EGISTOCK [Double Check]
3PRO TV (삼프로TV) · Sep 14
2:15:40
Every Morning, Fund Managers' Investment Meeting Live | Executive Director Park Se-ik & Chesley Investment Advisory [Morning Brief / 26.09.14.Mon]
Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) · Sep 14
45:04
Has the possibility of a September rate hike increased? What is the market paying attention to? | Park Byeong-chang, CEO of MP Partners [Market Inside]
3PRO TV (삼프로TV) · Sep 14
32:14
AI leaders warn of human extinction…"We're all going to die at this rate" | Trump: "Chinese cars can be produced in the US"…Will it become a summit agenda item? | Kwon Soon-woo, 3PRO TV Chief Reporter [News 3]
3PRO TV (삼프로TV) · Sep 13

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published September 14, 2026, features Noh Geun-chang discussing SMH, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, CSCO, AI-SECTOR, SKYY, GOOGL, NVDA, Custom AI ASICs. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Noh Geun-chang  · Tickers: SMH, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, CSCO, AI-SECTOR, SKYY, GOOGL, NVDA, Custom AI ASICs