Chart of the Day: Oil's big bounce

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 14, 2026 at 18:30  |  2:53  |  CNBC
Speakers
Joe Kernen — Co-Anchor, Squawk Box
Steve Liesman — Senior Economics Reporter

Summary

The CNBC panel discusses oil's more than 10% rebound over the past week driven by rising tensions in Iran and Venezuela. Joe Kernen explains his bullish energy and oil positioning, citing short positioning in futures, technical momentum, and exposure through Valero and an oil services ETF. Steve Liesman adds that the oil rally may be underdone due to multiple supply disruption risks and that investors remain underexposed to energy.

  • Oil rebounded over 10% in a week on Iran and Venezuela tensions.
  • Energy is the best-performing sector year-to-date and XLE hit a 52-week high.
  • Joe Kernen sees short positioning in oil futures setting up a potential short squeeze.
  • Kernen is long energy through Valero and an oil services ETF holding Baker Hughes.
  • Steve Liesman says multiple locales could disrupt oil supply and Venezuela's crude quality is underappreciated.
  • Liesman notes many investors are underexposed to energy at large.
Ideas
Joe Kernen Co-Anchor, Squawk Box 0:30
Energy sector short squeeze; long Valero.
Energy is the best-performing sector year-to-date, was ignored in 2025 and replaced by utilities, and has heavy short positioning in oil futures that could trigger a significant short squeeze; Joe is expressing this through energy equities such as Valero, expecting bullish positioning to sustain due to persistent Iran concerns.
XLE VLO HIGH
Joe Kernen Co-Anchor, Squawk Box 0:36
Crude oil short squeeze on Iran tensions.
Oil is rebounding on Iran and Venezuela tensions; short positioning in futures and spot oil approaching its 200-day moving average at $62.45 could fuel a significant short squeeze, and Iran concerns are unlikely to fade soon.
WTI HIGH
Joe Kernen Co-Anchor, Squawk Box 1:15
Oil services ETF long; Baker Hughes outperformer.
He bought the oil services ETF to gain exposure to various oil services names; the ETF holds Baker Hughes, an energy sector outperformer, making it the right play for the energy rally.
OIH HIGH
Steve Liesman Senior Economics Reporter 2:13
Oil rally underdone on supply risks.
Oil rally may be underdone because multiple locales could see supply disruptions; Venezuela's large reserves are unlikely to add quality supply soon, which the market underappreciates.
WTI MED
Steve Liesman Senior Economics Reporter 2:46
Energy underexposure creates long opportunity.
Many investors are likely underexposed to energy at large, creating an opportunity as oil supply risks build.
XLE MED
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This CNBC video, published January 14, 2026, features Joe Kernen, Steve Liesman discussing XLE, VLO, WTI, OIH. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Joe Kernen, Steve Liesman  · Tickers: XLE, VLO, WTI, OIH