KOSPI 25% Plunge Followed by Bottom Signal? The Real Reason Foreign Investor Supply and Demand Are Important | Lee Kyung-soo, Hana Securities Research Center Senior Research Fellow PB [Double Up]

Summary

Lee Kyung-soo analyzes the KOSPI’s 25% drop, comparing it to historical crises. He argues that foreign investor flows are key to a technical rebound, and if buying resumes, the index could return 25-35% over a year. He also highlights that AI capex from US Big Tech will continue to benefit Korean memory semiconductor stocks.

• KOSPI fell 25% after a prior 20%+ rally; historical precedents show rebounds when foreigners buy.
• Current foreign buying pattern resembles China/Dubai shock recoveries, not IT bubble collapse.
• Today’s foreign selling is likely a temporary risk-off due to oil spike and geopolitical tensions.
• The speaker recommends waiting for foreign selling to stabilize before re-entering KOSPI.
• AI capex boom expected to persist, with Big Tech spending rising sharply despite rate headwinds.
• Hardware, especially Korean memory semiconductors, seen as bigger beneficiary than software.
• Leveraged ETF interest declining, a positive sign for market stability.
• Individual investors should consider disciplined monthly accumulation rather than chasing rallies.