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The semiconductor cycle is in a late stage, but historically the late cycle has the highest price momentum, often exceeding 50% of the entire rally. The cycle is not over until a 20% peak-to-trough decline occurs. Earnings continue to improve through 2025, and the correlation between Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remains high. Investors should not sell too early.
In the May MSCI review, Korea's weight in emerging market indices is expected to jump from ~16% to ~24-25%, triggering passive inflows. Additionally, Korea has a 60-70% chance of being added to the MSCI developed market watchlist, which would lead to eventual index inclusion and a structural increase in foreign allocation. The government is actively addressing key requirements like 24-hour FX trading and improved disclosures.
The semiconductor cycle is in a late stage, but historically the late cycle has the highest price momentum, often exceeding 50% of the entire rally. The cycle is not over until a 20% peak-to-trough decline occurs. Earnings continue to improve through 2025, and the correlation between Samsung Electronics and SK hynix remains high. Investors should not sell too early.
In a rising-rate environment, global capital is rotating into hardware/technology stocks that offer cheap valuations, high quality, and strong cash flows, while software stocks underperform. This structural preference benefits semiconductor and storage companies such as Micron and Western Digital, which have been outperforming the S&P 500.
Space X is set to enter the Nasdaq 100 after the evaluation period ends this week, with actual inclusion next week triggering passive index fund buying. This week's weakness is a likely bottoming process, and the inclusion-driven flow, combined with hedge fund patterns of pushing prices up to sell to indices, creates a short-term positive setup for the Nasdaq 100.
In a high interest rate environment, the only defensive within the AI theme is hardware (semiconductors). Global AI chip earnings momentum stays strong, with NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, Samsung, and SK Hynix all showing upward earnings revisions. Sentiment will keep flowing into hardware names, which serve as the safe haven inside AI.
In a rising-rate environment, global capital is rotating into hardware/technology stocks that offer cheap valuations, high quality, and strong cash flows, while software stocks underperform. This structural preference benefits semiconductor and storage companies such as Micron and Western Digital, which have been outperforming the S&P 500.
Lee Kyung-soo has 7 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 7 tickers since May 2026. Ranked #196 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: EWY, 000660.KS, 005930.KS.
#196Ranked Speaker
#196 of 1247 voices on Buzzberg