Henrik Zeberg: Blow Off Top Underway - Real Economy Already Sinking

Summary

Henrik Zeberg argues the US real economy is already weakening as private job creation drops and most consumers are worse off, even while the stock market remains in a blow-off top. He expects the S&P 500 could rise to around 8,200 before a crash and recession worse than 2008, driven by central bank hubris and a stagflationary policy response. He sees a deflationary bust first, with a strong dollar spike crushing gold and silver in the short term, while staying long-term bullish on gold, silver, commodities, and Treasuries during the dollar regime. He also sees near-term upside in tech, China, India, and emerging markets before the regime shift.

• US private job creation is below prior recession levels and consumer conditions are weak.
• Henrik sees stocks in a final blow-off top with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 8,200.
• He expects a dollar spike to 120-123 on the DXY during a deflationary bust.
• Gold and silver may pull back in the short term but remain long-term bullish.
• The dollar and Treasuries are preferred in the dollar/deflationary regime.
• The coming recession could be worse than 2008 due to exhausted policy and stagflation risk.
• Near-term risk-on could still lift tech, China, India, and emerging markets.
• AI is viewed as a long-term positive but a short-term job headwind.