Fed’s Miran on Rate Cuts, Inflation, Future at Fed

Summary

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran discusses his forecast for about 150 basis points of rate cuts this year, arguing that underlying inflation is near target and the labor market is unnecessarily weak. He explains his view that shelter inflation will fall mechanically and that goods inflation is not clearly tariff-driven, creating two-sided inflation risks. He also says he would take a persistent bond-market signal seriously if rate cuts were seen as a mistake. Miran is unsure whether he will remain at the Fed after his term expires.

• Miran forecasts about 150 bps of rate cuts this year, the lowest among Fed officials.
• He sees underlying inflation near 2.3% due to lagged shelter and portfolio management fees.
• He argues policy is materially above neutral and too restrictive for a weakening labor market.
• He says goods inflation is not clearly tariff-driven, leaving two-sided inflation risk.
• He would heed a clear, persistent bond-market signal that rate cuts are wrong.
• He is uncertain about his future at the Fed after his term expires.