What to Make of Cuba Shooting Four People Dead in US Speedboat?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 25, 2026 at 22:51  |  4:25  |  Bloomberg Markets
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Summary

  • Incident Details: Cuban military killed four and injured six occupants of a US speedboat about a mile off the Cuban coast. Cuba claims the boat opened fire first; the US Coast Guard and White House have remained largely silent, referring comments to the State Department.
  • Macro Context: The incident occurs amid heightened tensions. The US (Trump administration) has cut off Venezuelan oil supplies to Cuba (following the detention of Nicolas Maduro), leaving the island with severe power and income shortages.
  • Regime Change Thesis: President Trump explicitly stated, "Cuba looks like it's ready to fall," citing the loss of Venezuelan support. The US strategy has shifted to approving energy exports specifically to the Cuban private sector to empower entrepreneurs and weaken the state regime.
Trade Ideas
Daniel Cancel Miami Bureau Chief, Bloomberg 0:28
President Trump stated, "Cuba looks like it's ready to fall... they got all of their income from Venezuela... they're not getting any of that." Additionally, the US is now "approving energy exports to the private sector" to empower locals. The "Regime Change" thesis is back in play. If the Cuban government collapses due to the energy blockade and economic starvation, the island would likely reopen to US commerce and tourism. The Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund (CUBA) is the primary closed-end fund proxy for this event. Cruise lines (CCL, RCL, NCLH) would be the immediate beneficiaries of a reopened Havana port. WATCH. While the long-term thesis is bullish on a regime collapse, the immediate "shooting war" rhetoric and violence are bearish for travel/tourism sentiment. Monitor for signs of actual political transition versus entrenched conflict. The regime survives (as it has for 60 years); the shooting incident escalates into a broader conflict that freezes all travel; lack of a clear reformist successor (the "Delcy Rodriguez" problem) leads to chaos rather than an open market.
CCL RCL NCLH CUBA
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 25, 2026, features Daniel Cancel discussing CCL, RCL, NCLH, CUBA. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Daniel Cancel  · Tickers: CCL, RCL, NCLH, CUBA