Daniel Cancel 2.6 4 ideas

President Trump stated, "Cuba looks like it's ready to fall... they got all of their income from Venezuela... they're not getting any of that." Additionally, the US is now "approving energy exports to the private sector" to empower locals. The "Regime Change" thesis is back in play. If the Cuban government collapses due to the energy blockade and economic starvation, the island would likely reopen to US commerce and tourism. The Herzfeld Caribbean Basin Fund (CUBA) is the primary closed-end fund proxy for this event. Cruise lines (CCL, RCL, NCLH) would be the immediate beneficiaries of a reopened Havana port. WATCH. While the long-term thesis is bullish on a regime collapse, the immediate "shooting war" rhetoric and violence are bearish for travel/tourism sentiment. Monitor for signs of actual political transition versus entrenched conflict. The regime survives (as it has for 60 years); the shooting incident escalates into a broader conflict that freezes all travel; lack of a clear reformist successor (the "Delcy Rodriguez" problem) leads to chaos rather than an open market.