Xi Tests Japan’s Ties With Trump | The China Show 1/8/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 08, 2026 at 06:01  |  1:34:38  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Max Richter — Co-founder, Insta360
Liu Debing — Co-founder and Chairman, Z.AI
Dong Jin Hyun — Vice President and Head of Robotics Lab, Hyundai Motor
Youkyung Lee — Asia Stocks Reporter, Bloomberg
Taosha Wang — Portfolio Manager, Fidelity
Lael Brainard — Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair
Paul Mackel — Global Head of FX Research, HSBC
Stephen Engle — Chief North Asian Correspondent, Bloomberg
John Harney — Senior Editor, Bloomberg
David Ingles — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

The China Show covers Greater China markets, geopolitical tensions, and key corporate and macro interviews. Guests discuss AI and chip demand, Hong Kong IPOs, robotics, Fed independence, and the dollar/FX outlook for 2026. Main market implications include continued preference for AI hardware and physical resources, a soft-dollar bias favoring EM FX, and ongoing risk from China-Japan and US-Venezuela tensions.

  • Greater China equities retreat as the early-2026 rally pauses; Hong Kong IPO market remains busy with Z.AI and others debuting.
  • China opens anti-dumping probe into Japanese chipmaking material, escalating tensions.
  • US plans to control Venezuelan oil sales indefinitely, raising geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Samsung's record profit highlights stronger-than-expected memory demand.
  • Fidelity's Taosha Wang favors AI hardware/semis and physical resources like copper and nuclear.
  • HSBC's Paul Mackel expects a soft dollar and favors EM currencies, with renminbi appreciation continuing.
  • Fed independence risk and the Fed rate path remain key macro themes.
  • Hyundai and Insta360 discuss robotics and global expansion at CES.
Ideas
Max Richter Co-founder, Insta360 14:41
Insta360 differentiates via software, global expansion.
Insta360 faces intensifying competition and price pressure in lower tiers, but it differentiates through innovation and software—60% of R&D staff are software engineers—and uses tiered pricing to keep older models relevant. IPO proceeds are funding new product categories, international flagship stores in Los Angeles, New York, Munich, Tokyo and elsewhere, and it expects to add about 1,000 employees, supporting global expansion despite competition.
Lael Brainard Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair 31:03
Fed independence risk threatens dollar, Treasuries.
Fed independence is central to keeping inflation expectations anchored and to why global investors confidently hold dollars and Treasury securities. Political pressure, including attempts to fire a governor, and the upcoming Supreme Court case pose a risk to that credibility; if independence is undermined, dollar and Treasury values could be hurt.
Dong Jin Hyun Vice President and Head of Robotics Lab, Hyundai Motor 36:51
Hyundai robotics commercialization with MobED.
Hyundai's MobED mobile robot won CES Best of Innovation; it combines wheel and leg advantages for stability and energy efficiency, is mass-production ready, and sales are planned for the first quarter. It can handle last-mile/door-to-door delivery and accept different payloads, while robotics can address Korea's labor shortage, supporting commercialization.
Liu Debing Co-founder and Chairman, Z.AI 44:15
Z.AI growth via cloud and R&D.
Z.AI's IPO proceeds are mainly for foundation-model R&D and commercialization; it expects cloud/mass platform revenue to grow rapidly, with user numbers up tenfold and revenue growth exceeding 50% over three years, more than half from cloud clients. Its coding API costs about one-tenth of cloud while achieving 90% performance, supporting competitiveness even as model prices and compute costs decline.
Youkyung Lee Asia Stocks Reporter, Bloomberg 51:16
Memory demand drives Samsung and SK hynix.
Memory demand is stronger than expected, driving the sharpest upward earnings revisions among Samsung's peers. Dip buyers quickly lifted Samsung shares, and analysts are asking clients whether they own enough memory-chip exposure in Samsung and SK hynix. Samsung's record operating profit is largely memory-driven, reinforcing the upcycle.
Taosha Wang Portfolio Manager, Fidelity 53:45
Prefer AI hardware over software.
AI remains best played through IT hardware, especially semiconductors, rather than software. Hardware has a greater moat, while software faces an existential debate because seat-based pricing is pressured as companies freeze hiring and spend more on AI infrastructure, reducing the number of seats.
Taosha Wang Portfolio Manager, Fidelity 53:45
Prefer AI hardware over software.
AI remains best played through IT hardware, especially semiconductors, rather than software. Hardware has a greater moat, while software faces an existential debate because seat-based pricing is pressured as companies freeze hiring and spend more on AI infrastructure, reducing the number of seats.
Taosha Wang Portfolio Manager, Fidelity 59:16
AI physical-resource demand favors commodities, copper, nuclear.
AI has enormous demand for physical resources, from data centers to power and cooling. AI demand tends to grow exponentially while the supply of physical resources grows linearly, creating a fundamental supply-demand mismatch. That makes commodities, copper and nuclear energy attractive long-term, even as specific technology assumptions shift.
Paul Mackel Global Head of FX Research, HSBC 78:20
Soft dollar favors emerging market currencies.
The dollar should remain soft because the Fed retains an easing bias and markets do not fear a hawkish shift. A benign dollar loosens global financial conditions and supports risk appetite, providing relief to many other currencies, primarily in the emerging world, so the riskier EM currency complex is preferred.
Paul Mackel Global Head of FX Research, HSBC 78:20
Soft dollar favors emerging market currencies.
The dollar should remain soft because the Fed retains an easing bias and markets do not fear a hawkish shift. A benign dollar loosens global financial conditions and supports risk appetite, providing relief to many other currencies, primarily in the emerging world, so the riskier EM currency complex is preferred.
Paul Mackel Global Head of FX Research, HSBC 81:15
Aussie, kiwi supported by rate hikes.
Beyond broad EM FX, HSBC likes currencies where central banks may need to start raising interest rates, explicitly Australia and New Zealand. Rate-hike risk supports these currencies in a soft-dollar, buoyant-risk environment.
Paul Mackel Global Head of FX Research, HSBC 81:42
Renminbi can keep appreciating gradually.
The renminbi's rally has surprised, and gradual appreciation can continue in a soft-dollar world. China's resilience and low yields should not prevent the currency from holding up; the real test is whether appreciation continues after Lunar New Year, which could shift expectations toward more meaningful strength.
Paul Mackel Global Head of FX Research, HSBC 84:47
LatAm carry attractive despite political noise.
HSBC is constructive on Latin America despite a busy political calendar. Investors are compensated by high nominal and real yields and carry, making the region attractive even if political noise is elevated.
Paul Mackel Global Head of FX Research, HSBC 85:26
Yen needs repatriation or softer Fed.
The yen remains a waiting game. Adjusted for inflation, Japanese real yields are unattractive and domestic outflows can persist; a turn would require Japanese locals to repatriate more or a softer Fed to stabilize dollar-yen. Catalysts are visible but not yet playing out.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 08, 2026, features Max Richter, Lael Brainard, Dong Jin Hyun, Liu Debing, Youkyung Lee, Taosha Wang, Paul Mackel discussing 688775.SS, USD, TLT, 005380.KS, Z.AI, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, SMH, IGV, DBC, COPPER, URA, EMLC, AUD, NZD, CNY, Latin American currencies, FXY. 14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Max Richter, Lael Brainard, Dong Jin Hyun, Liu Debing, Youkyung Lee, Taosha Wang, Paul Mackel  · Tickers: 688775.SS, USD, TLT, 005380.KS, Z.AI, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, SMH, IGV, DBC, COPPER, URA, EMLC, AUD, NZD, CNY, Latin American currencies, FXY