RBC's Helima Croft: Still losing significant volumes of oil every single day

Summary

Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets discusses the Iran war's severe disruption to oil supply, noting that 1.0–1.2 billion barrels have been lost and significant daily volumes remain offline. She explains that inventories are drawing rapidly and could hit tank bottoms if the stalemate persists, while the post-war oil price path crucially depends on whether Iran retains control over the Strait of Hormuz.

• The Iran war has removed over a billion barrels from the market and continues to cause daily supply losses.
• Crude prices rose 2% despite a 100-million-barrel release, partly due to the composition and sourcing of those barrels.
• Oil inventories are drawing at an extraordinary rate, threatening storage operational minimums and potential tank bottoms.
• A peace deal would likely trigger a selloff, but full normalization requires unblocked Strait of Hormuz shipping.
• If the war ends with Iran controlling the strait and charging transit fees, oil may not return to pre-crisis levels.
• The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve risks falling below its 300-million-barrel operational minimum, threatening facility integrity.