Strong Start to 2026 for Chinese Stocks | The China Show 1/6/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 06, 2026 at 07:03  |  1:30:56  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Ed Ludlow — Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology
Hao Hong — Chief Economist, GROW Investment Group
Becky Liu — Head of Greater China Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank
Lanting — Managing Editor for Asia Equities, Bloomberg
Martin Ritchie — Metals & Mining Reporter
Wilbur Ross — Former U.S. Commerce Secretary, Chairman & CEO of Ross Acquisition Corp II
Leif Eskesen — Chief Economist, CLSA
Seong-Hyon Lee — Harvard University Asia Center
Min Lo — China Correspondent, Bloomberg

Summary

The program covers a strong start to 2026 for Chinese equities, with the CSI 300 near four-year highs and the Shanghai Composite near ten-year highs, led by tech and materials. Guests debate the sustainability of the rally, the yuan's appreciation path, China rates and macro outlook, copper's record run, Nvidia's Rubin timeline, and Venezuela-related developments. China-South Korea diplomacy and Venezuela legal/energy stories are also discussed.

  • Chinese onshore equities rally, led by tech and industrial metals; CSI 300 near a four-year high.
  • Hao Hong favors Chinese A-shares, Chinese tech, industrial commodities, gold/silver, and yuan appreciation.
  • Becky Liu sees modest yuan appreciation, favors China front-end rates, and sees long-end yields elevated.
  • CLSA's Leif Eskesen expects China growth moderation and two Fed cuts in H1, with AI CapEx growth moderating.
  • Martin Ritchie says copper's rally is driven by supply disruptions, data centers, and US tariff front-running, but peak risk exists.
  • Ed Ludlow says Nvidia's Vera Rubin remains on track for H2 2026 with better AI economics.
  • Venezuela legal and oil/debt developments are discussed, including a potential sovereign debt restructuring.
  • China-South Korea relations show warming but remain a balancing act with the US.
Ideas
Ed Ludlow Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology 5:02
Nvidia Rubin ramp supports AI infrastructure
Jensen Huang confirmed Nvidia's Vera Rubin systems will ship in H2 2026 and go into full production on schedule. Ed says a gigawatt of Vera Rubin capacity can deliver ten times the throughput of Blackwell and generate tokens at one-tenth the Blackwell cost, altering AI economics and giving the market confidence Nvidia's roadmap remains on track, though the keynote lacked new financial guidance and the bar remains high.
Hao Hong Chief Economist, GROW Investment Group 9:09
China A-shares leading on liquidity return
China's onshore A-share market has caught up and is taking leadership from Hong Kong; technology and industrial metals are leading, industrial names are recovering, and sentiment and liquidity have returned even though economic data remain weak and investors are waiting for policy delivery. He expects the trend that started late last year to continue.
Hao Hong Chief Economist, GROW Investment Group 9:28
Industrial commodities favored on cyclical revival
Industrial metals and broader industrial commodities are doing very well, with industrial names coming back and giving a sense of cyclical upswing even though economic data are not showing it. He explicitly still likes industrial commodities in a rising-liquidity environment.
Hao Hong Chief Economist, GROW Investment Group 12:49
Gold and silver can rise further
Gold and silver were his most prominent 2025 calls and the trend is continuing; after consolidation, both metals could move substantially higher from here, even higher than last year.
Hao Hong Chief Economist, GROW Investment Group 13:24
Yuan undervalued, further appreciation likely
The Chinese yuan has been resilient despite the trade war and is starting to rise; the effective exchange rate has depreciated about 30% over recent years despite strong exports and a rising trade surplus, leaving the currency undervalued and providing a foundation for further appreciation this year, though the PBOC may resist a rapid pace.
Hao Hong Chief Economist, GROW Investment Group 15:01
Chinese tech trend continues into 2026
Chinese tech led the market for the first three quarters of 2025 before pausing in October, but hardware advances should bring forward software advances and Chinese companies continue to make AI breakthroughs. He still likes Chinese tech and expects the late-2025 trend to continue into 2026.
Becky Liu Head of Greater China Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank 28:51
Yuan appreciation expectation remains, pace modest
The yuan's December strength was driven by seasonality and under-hedged exporters converting FX before year-end; January momentum should be less strong and the currency may hover around 7 in the near term. However, structural FX settlement and China's industrial-upgrade export mix support a continued appreciation expectation, with only a modest pace as the PBOC tries to tame rapid moves.
Becky Liu Head of Greater China Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank 34:48
China long-dated bonds remain unattractive
The long end of China's yield curve may stay elevated through at least the first half because heavy long-dated special government bond issuance is meeting weak demand for long-duration bonds, especially as equity-bond rotation continues and non-bank investors are not buying. She therefore sees the back end as relatively unattractive.
Becky Liu Head of Greater China Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank 35:25
Favor China front-end rates
China's front end of the rates curve looks relatively comfortable because the market has completely priced out rate cuts, which may be too extreme; while first-half performance may be rangebound, she expects the trade to gain momentum in the second half. The PBOC is reluctant to cut aggressively and wants to maintain low financing costs.
Lanting Managing Editor for Asia Equities, Bloomberg 49:52
STAR 50 leads Chinese tech rally
Chinese equity rally is driven by dry powder and upbeat global sentiment, with tech the continuing winner. The STAR 50 index is an outstanding gainer because of upcoming listings and leading Chinese chip makers, making it a focused way to play the Chinese tech rally.
Martin Ritchie Metals & Mining Reporter 62:33
Copper momentum strong, but peak risk
Copper has rallied about 20% since late November and broke above $13,000 a tonne for the first time, supported by mining disruptions, energy-transition and data-center demand, and a US import rush ahead of a possible refined-copper tariff decision. The trade is momentum-driven; risks are that the tariff-related tightness is temporary, global supply is not that tight, and prices may peak in the first half if AI/data-center equities stall.
Wilbur Ross Former U.S. Commerce Secretary, Chairman & CEO of Ross Acquisition Corp II 86:22
Venezuela debt restructuring recovery potential
Venezuela's roughly $160 billion debt stack is complex and the country's weak property rights need fixing, but sovereign bonds trading in the high-teens/low-twenties could be restructured at 30-40 cents on the dollar, and the IMF has no exposure and can lend up to $50 billion, providing a possible funding source. This creates a distressed-debt recovery setup, though it depends on legal and political progress.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 06, 2026, features Ed Ludlow, Hao Hong, Becky Liu, Lanting, Martin Ritchie, Wilbur Ross discussing NVDA, ASHR, Industrial commodities, GLD, SILVER, CNY, KWEB, China long-dated government bonds, China front-end government bonds, CQQQ, COPPER, Venezuela sovereign bonds. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Ed Ludlow, Hao Hong, Becky Liu, Lanting, Martin Ritchie, Wilbur Ross  · Tickers: NVDA, ASHR, Industrial commodities, GLD, SILVER, CNY, KWEB, China long-dated government bonds, China front-end government bonds, CQQQ, COPPER, Venezuela sovereign bonds