Steven Major Sees List of Factors in ‘Drip, Drip Higher’ of Long-End Bonds

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 17, 2026 at 12:53  |  3:22  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Stephen Major — Global Macro Adviser, Tradition Dubai

Summary

Steven Major of Tradition Dubai argues that long-end bond yields are grinding higher due to a mix of fiscal risk premium, strong equity earnings, international spillovers, and more nuanced supply dynamics. He says front-end yields are mostly explained by policy-rate repricing, but ten-year-plus yields reflect additional pressures and are sticky above 5%. He also notes the market is already focused on Jackson Hole.

  • Steven Major sees a 'drip drip higher' in long-end bond yields.
  • He cites strong equity earnings as forcing up bond term premia.
  • Fiscal dynamics and a more sophisticated supply story are also factors.
  • International spillover is currently affecting JGB long-end curves.
  • Two- and five-year yields are mostly explained by policy-rate repricing.
  • Ten-year-plus yields do not want to go back below 5%.
  • Market attention is already on Jackson Hole for potential set-piece moves.
Ideas
Stephen Major Global Macro Adviser, Tradition Dubai 1:15
JGB long end under global spillover
The long end of the JGB curve is currently feeling an international spillover effect, part of the same global process that previously affected gilts, bunds, and Australian bonds, keeping upward pressure on long-end yields.
JGBS MED
Stephen Major Global Macro Adviser, Tradition Dubai 1:25
Long-end bond yields grinding higher
Long-end government bond yields are grinding higher because several factors are compounding: strong corporate earnings are forcing bond term premia higher, fiscal dynamics are worrying, and there is an international spillover effect hitting long-end curves such as JGBs now and gilts, bunds, and Australian bonds recently.
Long-end government bonds HIGH
Stephen Major Global Macro Adviser, Tradition Dubai 2:55
Ten-year yields stay above 5%
The front end of the curve, the two-year and even five-year, is fully explained by the repricing from three rate cuts to two hikes, but ten-year-plus yields have additional pressures and do not want to go back below 5%.
US10Y HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 17, 2026, features Stephen Major discussing JGBS, Long-end government bonds, US10Y. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Stephen Major  · Tickers: JGBS, Long-end government bonds, US10Y