China Meets 5% Growth Target but Momentum Weakens | The China Show — 1/19/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | January 19, 2026 at 05:30 | 1:34:31 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Wendy Liu — Chief China Equity Strategist, JPMorgan

Raymond Yeung — Chief Greater China Economist, ANZ

Tina Hou — China Auto Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Mark Cudmore — Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist

Yvonne Man — Head of APAC, CoinDesk

Stephen Engle — Chief North Asian Correspondent, Bloomberg

Charlotte Yang — Asia Equities Reporter, Bloomberg

David Ingles — Anchor, Bloomberg

Rosalind Mathieson — Head of Content, Blockworks

Summary

The China Show opens with markets in risk-off mode as President Trump threatens new tariffs on European allies over Greenland, boosting havens such as gold, silver, the yen and Swiss franc. China meets its 2025 growth target of 5%, but Q4 momentum weakens and December data show soft retail sales, negative fixed asset investment and continued home-price declines. Guests discuss China equity strategy, EV competition, property and tech, with JPMorgan favoring MSCI China, growth, materials, communications, AI hardware and selective consumption; ANZ sees tech policy support and an undervalued yuan; Goldman Sachs prefers Chinese auto OEMs with overseas exposure.

Trump threatens tariffs on EU allies over Greenland; markets show risk-off and haven demand.
China's 2025 GDP growth reaches the 5% target, but Q4 GDP slows to 4.5% and December data show weak consumption and investment.
China home prices remain in contraction, and property is still a weak spot.
JPMorgan's Wendy Liu sees MSCI China outperforming CSI 300 and favors growth, materials, communications, AI hardware, staples and tier-one property optionality.
ANZ's Raymond Yeung says policy is becoming structural and tech-focused, with the yuan undervalued and exports structurally strong.
Goldman Sachs' Tina Hou sees fierce domestic EV competition but a bright overseas market for Chinese auto OEMs with export exposure.
Mark Cudmore sees precious and industrial metals supported by geopolitics and rearmament, but warns of near-term precious-metals risk.
Markets also watch Davos, the BOJ meeting, Fed chair speculation and US-EU trade tensions.

Ideas

Stephen Engle Chief North Asian Correspondent, Bloomberg 13:17

China property remains a weak pillar

China's property sector remains the weakest part of the recovery with home prices still in contraction and no resolution in sight, so investors should avoid Chinese property.

Yvonne Man Head of APAC, CoinDesk 16:50

Yen, Swiss franc benefit from haven demand

Geopolitical shock from Trump's Greenland tariff threats has revived the sell-America trade, driving haven demand into the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

Wendy Liu Chief China Equity Strategist, JPMorgan 27:48

China growth style leads this year

The rotation has moved from value back to growth; JPMorgan's quantitative macro indicator and style trading suggest China growth equities should stay in the growth zone for most of this year, supported by upward earnings revisions since mid-December.

Wendy Liu Chief China Equity Strategist, JPMorgan 28:22

Materials, communication services lead China earnings

The China earnings recovery should be led by materials and communication services, helped by AI-driven cost reductions and catalyst pricing, while healthcare faces a 2026 earnings hit.

Wendy Liu Chief China Equity Strategist, JPMorgan 33:01

China AI hardware remains structurally supported

Chinese names tied to global AI hardware, including optical modules, PCB and semiconductors, have structural upside; investors are waiting for revenue volume to ramp, and structurally positive money should stay invested despite volatility.

Wendy Liu Chief China Equity Strategist, JPMorgan 34:35

MSCI China beats CSI 300 this quarter

JPMorgan expects MSCI China to outperform CSI 300 this quarter; H-shares and offshore China should lead the onshore large-cap index as the market returns to growth mode.

Wendy Liu Chief China Equity Strategist, JPMorgan 34:35

MSCI China beats CSI 300 this quarter

JPMorgan expects MSCI China to outperform CSI 300 this quarter; H-shares and offshore China should lead the onshore large-cap index as the market returns to growth mode.

Wendy Liu Chief China Equity Strategist, JPMorgan 34:40

Onshore mid-caps outperform CSI 300

Onshore China mid-caps should outperform the CSI 300 because retail participation tends to favor small and mid-caps while institutional money stabilizes the large-cap index.

Wendy Liu Chief China Equity Strategist, JPMorgan 35:14

Experience consumption still supported by growth cycle

The consumer shift toward experience-based and lifestyle spending remains intact; valuation multiples for proxies have corrected, and as long as China remains in a growth cycle, the theme should bode well.

Wendy Liu Chief China Equity Strategist, JPMorgan 35:46

China staples and protein offer value

China staples are relatively cheap versus history, and a renewed consumer focus on food quality and higher protein should benefit selective protein names; consumption spending is not explosive, but a growth cycle supports the theme.

Wendy Liu Chief China Equity Strategist, JPMorgan 36:51

Tier-one property is positive optionality

There is positive optionality in Chinese tier-one property: additional easing or relaxation of purchase restrictions could be greater than expected and attract buying into prime property.

Raymond Yeung Chief Greater China Economist, ANZ 53:09

China electronics exports are structurally strong

China's export sector is structurally strong because the technology and digital economy supercycle and electronics supply chains are difficult to replace in other economies, even though the external environment remains vulnerable.

Raymond Yeung Chief Greater China Economist, ANZ 54:34

Policy funding supports China tech sector

China's policy orientation is becoming more structural and targeted, and the 15th five-year plan is expected to direct funding toward a tech-driven economy, supporting the tech sector.

Raymond Yeung Chief Greater China Economist, ANZ 58:38

Chinese yuan remains fundamentally undervalued

The Chinese yuan is undervalued on a fundamental basis because China's GDP per capita in international dollars is far above the US level in 1980; the PBOC may slow but not prevent eventual appreciation.

Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 65:10

Precious metals gain as geopolitical haven

Precious metals benefit from geopolitical risk and the desire to diversify away from fiat currencies into real assets, but if there is no resolution and risk aversion intensifies, investors may sell winners and precious metals could get hit badly in the near term.

Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 65:32

Industrial metals benefit from rearmament cycle

Industrial metals should benefit as geopolitical fragmentation and rearmament and industrialization efforts remove complacency and force countries to invest in defense and industry.

Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 67:49

US Treasury yields have upside

Orthodox economics suggests the Fed cannot cut rates as much as priced this year, so Treasury yields have upside; even if politics leads to easier policy, rate cuts are hard to justify.

Tina Hou China Auto Analyst, Goldman Sachs 83:19

Chinese auto exporters are the bright spot

The domestic China auto market faces fierce competition with 120 new EV models, declining industry cash profit and slowing demand, but the overseas market is a bright spot with several-times-higher profitability and improved access to Europe and Canada, so prefer OEMs with better overseas exposure and expansion plans.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 19, 2026, features Stephen Engle, Yvonne Man, Wendy Liu, Raymond Yeung, Mark Cudmore, Tina Hou discussing China property sector, JPY, CHF, China growth equities, China materials sector, China communication services sector, China AI hardware supply chain, MCHI, CSI 300, China onshore mid-caps, China experience-based consumption, CHIS, Chinese protein producers, China tier-1 property, China electronics supply chain, KWEB, CNY, GLTR, DBB, TLT, Chinese auto OEMs with overseas exposure. 18 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Stephen Engle, Yvonne Man, Wendy Liu, Raymond Yeung, Mark Cudmore, Tina Hou · Tickers: China property sector, JPY, CHF, China growth equities, China materials sector, China communication services sector, China AI hardware supply chain, MCHI, CSI 300, China onshore mid-caps, China experience-based consumption, CHIS, Chinese protein producers, China tier-1 property, China electronics supply chain, KWEB, CNY, GLTR, DBB, TLT, Chinese auto OEMs with overseas exposure