More Important Variables Than Samsung Electronics' '86 Trillion Won' Performance: The Real Reason Semiconductor Stocks Can't Rise

Summary

Kim Jang-yeol, Head of Research Center at Unistory Asset Management, explains why Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stocks are not rallying despite record earnings, citing elevated expectations, foreign investor wariness, and the need for strong Big Tech capex catalysts. He also highlights Poongsan as a mispriced defense stock due to ceasefire fears and notes improving macro conditions, but sees limited Korean market breadth.

• Korean memory semiconductor stocks are fundamentally strong but are unlikely to break out without additional catalysts from Big Tech reaffirming AI investment plans.
• Poongsan's share price has fallen on ceasefire expectations, but its earnings are solid, offering a potential buying opportunity.
• The KOSPI appears to have downside support around 2,750-2,770, but the earlier 2,950 target may be lowered if earnings fail to spur rallies.
• Macro indicators are improving (lower oil, lower U.S. yields), but Korea lacks diverse sectors to fully benefit from a potential value rotation.
• Domestic deposit flow and two-times ETFs continue to influence short-term supply/demand dynamics, adding to market uncertainty.
• SK Hynix's ADR issuance and foreign exchange dynamics could provide a tailwind if the won strengthens below 1,480 per dollar.