Is China's Monopoly Over? Japan Strikes a Rare Earth Jackpot in the Deep Sea... Will China's Rare Earth Weaponization Strategy Finally Be Blocked? | Professor Kang Jun-young

Summary

Professor Kang Jun-young discusses China's use of rare earth export controls as a geopolitical weapon and Japan's deep-sea rare earth extraction as a potential long-term counter. He argues Japan's photoresist dominance gives it reciprocal leverage in semiconductors, while the broader US-China and Japan-China rivalry is likely to remain managed competition rather than extreme conflict. The interview also covers military balance, Chinese weapons exports, and the global defense buildup, with implications for rare earths, semiconductor materials, and defense industries.

• China has weaponized rare earths and other strategic minerals, but export controls have limits.
• Japan's pilot deep-sea rare earth extraction at 5,700-6,000 meters found high-quality, low-radioactivity deposits, potentially one-third of global reserves and 800 years of supply.
• Commercialization is not yet proven; Japan targets a marketability review and private production by 2028.
• Japan controls about 90% of photoresist, giving it a semiconductor supply-chain countermeasure against China.
• Japan is diversifying rare earth supply via recycling, Australian mines, US mineral agreements, and the Pax Silica AI alliance.
• US-China competition is expected to remain managed because neither side can force the other to capitulate.
• The discussion highlights rising defense budgets in Japan and Korea and the emergence of Korea's defense industry.
• Chinese weapons exports are expanding but face battlefield-validation questions.