Warsh Ahead in Fed Race; Turbulence in oil market | Horizons Middle East & Africa 1/30/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 30, 2026 at 08:20  |  46:00  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Rajeev Sibal — Morgan Stanley Senior Global Economist
Casey Spray — Market Strategist, AG Capital
Stuart Livingstone-Wallace — Bloomberg Executive Editor for Middle East, North Africa, and Russia
Annabel Droulers — Anchor, Bloomberg TV
Min Min Low — China Correspondent, Bloomberg
Ed Ludlow — Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology
John Herskovitz — Bloomberg East Asia Government Editor
Jennifer Zabasajja — Chief Africa Correspondent, Bloomberg

Summary

Bloomberg Horizons Middle East & Africa covered reports that Kevin Warsh is the leading candidate for Fed chair, Apple's record quarter, oil-market turbulence tied to Iran, and South Africa's monetary policy pause. Guests discussed U.S. rate-cut timing, Japan's debt sustainability, rand strength, tech earnings, China property, and SpaceX-Tesla merger speculation. Markets watched a stronger dollar, lower gold, and mixed tech reactions.

  • Kevin Warsh reportedly tipped for Fed chair; markets reacted with a stronger dollar, higher Treasury yields, and lower gold.
  • Apple posted record quarterly sales and an upbeat forecast, but memory-chip costs and AI execution remained concerns.
  • Microsoft's Azure growth and rising capex weighed on the stock after a historic one-day selloff.
  • Oil pulled back after a three-day rally, with U.S.-Iran tension and an OPEC+ meeting in focus.
  • South Africa's central bank held rates at 6.75%; strategist flagged possible March cut and rand strength.
  • Rajeev Sibal of Morgan Stanley retained June and September Fed cut calls and said Japanese debt is sustainable.
  • Trump said Putin agreed to pause Kyiv strikes; Ukraine peace talks remained unresolved on territory.
  • SpaceX was reported to consider a Tesla or xAI merger; China property and New World Development were also in focus.
Ideas
Rajeev Sibal Morgan Stanley Senior Global Economist 9:25
Fed cuts coming in June and September
Morgan Stanley retains its call for Fed rate cuts in June and September 2026. A new Fed chair, including Kevin Warsh, is unlikely to dramatically change the Fed's composition or votes, and the Fed remains data-dependent. The cuts are supported by inflation expected to cool from about 3% toward 2.5% as tariff effects roll out of year-over-year comparisons.
TLT HIGH
Rajeev Sibal Morgan Stanley Senior Global Economist 12:54
Japanese debt fears overdone; buy JGBs
Japanese debt remains sustainable because the government runs a fairly balanced primary fiscal balance, so recent speculation about a fiscal/JGB crisis is overdone. The 30-year JGB yield has already come back in, and clarity on Fed/BoJ policy should allow fundamentals to reassert and support JGBs.
Japan 30-year government bonds MED
Annabel Droulers Anchor, Bloomberg TV 14:47
Apple strong but margin/AI risks
Apple's record quarter and upbeat forecast were driven by strong iPhone sales and a China recovery, but memory-chip shortages may pressure margins from the second quarter and its AI efforts remain behind, making the risk/reward balanced.
AAPL MED
Annabel Droulers Anchor, Bloomberg TV 16:48
Microsoft Azure slowdown versus rising capex
Microsoft suffered a historic selloff after Azure growth merely met estimates while capex is rising; if Azure slows as capital expenditures increase, returns and margins are at risk, making the stock unattractive near term.
MSFT MED
Stuart Livingstone-Wallace Bloomberg Executive Editor for Middle East, North Africa, and Russia 19:52
Iran strike risk keeps oil on watch
A U.S. strike on Iran remains possible despite both sides looking for a diplomatic offramp. The scale of U.S. military buildup gives the administration options for intervention, so the risk is not a done deal but remains a live oil-market catalyst.
BNO MED
Min Min Low China Correspondent, Bloomberg 26:51
Blackstone stake could lift New World
New World Development is in advanced talks with Blackstone for a stake that could make Blackstone the largest shareholder, potentially providing a liquidity lifeline and helping it avoid selling core assets. The market has reacted positively, but the deal is not final.
0017.HK MED
Min Min Low China Correspondent, Bloomberg 27:47
China property rebound looks unsustainable
Chinese property developers' rebound is likely unsustainable. The report that some developers no longer need to submit the three redline indicators is seen by analysts as a largely cosmetic move, and the broader property market is seeing big losses.
Chinese property developers MED
Casey Spray Market Strategist, AG Capital 31:52
Rand can strengthen further on fundamentals
The rand has strengthened on improved local macro, a strong commodity cycle, constrained budget spending, robust trade and tax revenues, and dollar weakness. She expects further rand strength, with market talk of a move toward the 14.75 handle and even the 14.40s, though policy uncertainty remains.
ZAR MED
Ed Ludlow Co-Host, Bloomberg Technology 43:24
Tesla-SpaceX merger speculation worth watching
SpaceX is considering a merger with Tesla or a combination with xAI. A body of investors has pushed the Tesla-SpaceX option, and SpaceX is preparing for an IPO in mid-2026 to raise over $40-50 billion for space-based data centers. Nothing is final, but the potential consolidation is a live catalyst for Tesla.
TSLA MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 30, 2026, features Rajeev Sibal, Annabel Droulers, Stuart Livingstone-Wallace, Min Min Low, Casey Spray, Ed Ludlow discussing TLT, Japan 30-year government bonds, AAPL, MSFT, BNO, 0017.HK, Chinese property developers, ZAR, TSLA. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Rajeev Sibal, Annabel Droulers, Stuart Livingstone-Wallace, Min Min Low, Casey Spray, Ed Ludlow  · Tickers: TLT, Japan 30-year government bonds, AAPL, MSFT, BNO, 0017.HK, Chinese property developers, ZAR, TSLA