The Moment the AI Revolution Fails, the Global Economy Will Shake

Summary

Oh Geon-yeong, Head of Premier Pathfinder at Shinhan Bank, provides a macro and asset-allocation perspective. He discusses how the AI revolution is essential to solve global debt, but warns that semiconductor prices may face demand destruction akin to oil history. He sees a structural shift favoring energy and resource-rich countries due to geopolitical supply risks and energy diversification. He also argues for holding US dollar assets as a hedge against persistent Korean won weakness, while the Bank of Korea's rate hike signals a stronger focus on currency stability.

• AI growth is positive long-term but market expectations are too fast, creating semiconductor price risks.
• Historical oil market patterns suggest unsustainable high chip prices could trigger demand destruction and alternative supply.
• Geopolitical tensions (Iran-Hormuz) are raising energy transport costs and forcing global energy diversification.
• Energy sector may outperform tech in the coming period, warranting an allocation.
• Resource-rich countries like Brazil are set to benefit from the shift in energy sourcing.
• The US is uniquely positioned with both tech and energy strength, making US dollar assets attractive.
• Korean won weakness is likely to persist due to interest rate differentials and structural dollar demand.
• Bank of Korea's rate hike reflects a priority on currency stability over near-term growth.