Oh Geon-young

Resource-rich countries like Brazil will gain economic strength as the world diversifies energy sourcing away from the Middle East. Previously, resource-exporting nations struggled due to weak demand and shale competition, but now they will benefit from rising demand for their resources, giving them geopolitical and economic leverage. Brazil is explicitly mentioned as a country that could see a reversal from its past difficult period.

US dollar-denominated assets will outperform due to structural strength of the US economy which has both a dominant tech sector and a resurgent energy sector, placing it in a unique category ('both tech and energy'). Additionally, the Korean won is likely to remain weak or weaken further as the Bank of Korea cannot raise rates enough to close the interest-rate gap with the US without damaging growth. Holding USD assets hedges against high and sticky KRW depreciation and benefits from US economic resilience.

Energy sector is poised for a sustained period of outperformance relative to tech. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Iran-Hormuz strait) are structurally raising energy transport costs (insurance, charter rates, tolls) and reducing supply reliability. This forces countries to diversify energy sourcing away from the Middle East, leading to higher baseline energy prices. Historical 10-15 year cycles show energy can dramatically outperform tech when supply is tight and demand diversifies. After a decade of tech dominance, now is the time to allocate to energy.

Oil prices are likely to remain elevated because the Hormuz Strait blockade and the resulting increases in transportation costs (shipping, insurance, crew risk premiums) will persist even after the war ends, offsetting any supply increase from UAE leaving OPEC. This structural cost premium will keep crude oil prices high.