MONAD Monad : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Dragonfly raised $650M to deploy into high-conviction infrastructure. Haseeb explicitly names Monad, MegaETH, and Ethena (ENA) as key portfolio investments. Despite the bear market ("extinction level event"), Dragonfly is deploying into these specific protocols, signaling they view them as the technical winners of the next cycle. LONG the specific assets backed by this fresh capital. Execution risk on unreleased mainnets (Monad/MegaETH); smart contract risk for Ethena.

"Why bet on some random crypto project... why bet on Layer Zero or Monad... or Sei or Sui or Aptos when you can gamble on [Prediction Markets]?" Retail liquidity is shifting away from "Tech" coins (L1s/Interop) toward pure gambling (Prediction Markets). Without the "casino" aspect of community pumps, these high-valuation infrastructure plays have no buyer of last resort. Avoid generic L1s and "Zombie Chains" as attention shifts to gambling/prediction markets. A specific app breakout on one of these chains attracts liquidity back.

Warwick states Infinex is built for a "multi-chain world" where Solana is a "real thing," and mentions supporting upcoming chains like MegaETH and Monad. He notes they use "Sunrise" for liquidity provisioning on Solana. The "Super App" removes the tribalism and friction of specific chains. By abstracting gas (paying gas for the user), Infinex increases the velocity of money across *all* integrated L1s. A successful super app is bullish for the underlying infrastructure it sits on top of, as it removes the "bridging barrier" that currently keeps liquidity siloed. Long the L1 infrastructure basket. Commoditization of L1 blockspace; technical exploits in the bridging/aggregation layer.

1. THE FACT: "Man monad can’t even muster a 2nd exit liquidity pump. Chart looks like it’s literal zero incoming" 2. THE BRIDGE: The speaker observes a lack of "exit liquidity pump" and a chart that suggests a decline to "literal zero." This implies a strong bearish outlook on the asset. 3. THE VERDICT: Monad is showing extreme weakness and is likely to trend towards zero.

1. THE FACT: The user questions the incentives for people to have $45m in Monad stablepools with sub 1% APY, implying that incentives are likely paid out to these stablepools. 2. THE BRIDGE: If a significant portion of TVL is held in low-yield stablecoin pools primarily due to incentives, it suggests that the TVL is not organic and is dependent on these incentives. This indicates a lack of intrinsic value proposition for users beyond the incentives, making the chain's long-term viability questionable once incentives diminish. 3. THE VERDICT: Monad's TVL is likely propped up by incentives for low-yield stablecoin pools, suggesting an unsustainable model and a bearish outlook.

1. THE FACT: The user views Monad's TVL numbers (around $180m, with $70m in Uniswap) as "mega bearish." They suggest that 99% of the Uniswap TVL is likely "mm curated concentrated liquidity stablecoin swaps." 2. THE BRIDGE: High TVL numbers, especially when a significant portion is attributed to curated stablecoin swaps with sub 1% APY (as mentioned in tweet 13), do not indicate genuine organic usage or demand for the chain's native functionalities. This suggests an artificial inflation of metrics that doesn't reflect underlying value. 3. THE VERDICT: Monad's TVL is artificially inflated by market maker activity in stablecoin pools, indicating a lack of genuine user engagement and making the chain's fundamentals bearish.

The user

1. THE FACT: The speaker states Monad is "Back to defending 2.5c soon, exit liquidity pump #1 in the books." 2. THE BRIDGE: This implies that any recent price increase was a temporary "exit liquidity pump" for insiders, and the asset is likely to return to its ICO price, which the team will struggle to defend. 3. THE VERDICT: Short Monad, as recent pumps are likely temporary and the asset is expected to retest and potentially break below its ICO price.

1. THE FACT: The speaker questions how Monad is different from other chains (Blast, Plasma, Scroll, etc.) beyond being cheaper and faster, and asks for examples of chains with a similar "high fdv low float, supply controlled by insiders, heavy chain incentives at launch" playbook that had positive long-term outcomes. 2. THE BRIDGE: The lack of a clear differentiator and a problematic launch playbook (high FDV, low float, insider control, heavy incentives) suggests Monad is unlikely to achieve long-term positive performance. 3. THE VERDICT: Avoid Monad due to its undifferentiated value proposition and a launch strategy that historically leads to poor long-term outcomes.

1. THE FACT: The speaker states it is "Time to fill the TGE wick on Monad" and ends the tweet with "ZERO". 2. THE BRIDGE: "Filling the wick" is trader slang for price returning to a previous low. The TGE wick represents the initial, often volatile, low point of a token's trading history. Calling for this, plus adding "ZERO," implies a strong conviction that the token will not only retrace its initial drop but potentially fail entirely. 3. THE VERDICT: The speaker expects a significant price decline for Monad, targeting the initial post-launch lows and potentially a complete collapse.

1. THE FACT: After a one-day rally, the speaker states it's time to "send it where it belongs. ZERO". 2. THE BRIDGE: This implies the recent price appreciation was unwarranted and the asset has no fundamental value. The speaker believes the rally is an opportunity to enter a short position. 3. THE VERDICT: The speaker is calling the top of a recent rally and initiating a short position with a price target of zero, viewing the asset as fundamentally worthless.

1. THE FACT: The speaker states that the @monad launch "went pretty well" considering the market conditions and speculates that "$0.1 is possible" in a few months. 2. THE BRIDGE: This suggests a belief that the project has fundamental strength or resilience, having navigated a difficult launch environment successfully. The future price target, qualified with "(diamond hands only)", implies a conviction that the asset is currently undervalued with significant upside for patient investors. 3. THE VERDICT: The speaker is putting forward a medium-term, high-conviction long thesis on the Monad project, suggesting it's a good asset to hold for potential future appreciation.

Just realized I can buy in total one pack of Malboro using my gains from Monad ICO..

1. THE FACT: There have been "insane free money arbs on monad" although spreads are tightening a bit. 2. THE BRIDGE: The existence of significant arbitrage opportunities suggests market inefficiency and potential for profit, but also high volatility. Tightening spreads indicate these opportunities might be diminishing. 3. THE VERDICT: Watch Monad for potential arbitrage opportunities, but be aware they may be closing.

1. THE FACT: The speaker believes Monad will face "infinite sell pressure" and that liquidity incentives would worsen the situation. They also expect the team to defend the 2.5c ICO price for optics. 2. THE BRIDGE: Despite potential efforts to defend the ICO price, the underlying sell pressure and negative impact of liquidity incentives suggest the price will struggle to rise and likely fall further. 3. THE VERDICT: Short Monad due to anticipated infinite sell pressure and the ineffectiveness of potential liquidity incentives.

1. THE FACT: Monad traded below its ICO price (2.5c) within 40 minutes of launch, indicating retail investors are already underwater. 2. THE BRIDGE: This rapid drop below ICO price suggests significant selling pressure and lack of immediate demand, making it a poor investment. 3. THE VERDICT: Short Monad due to immediate post-ICO price weakness and retail investors being underwater.

1. THE FACT: The speaker repeatedly states "MONAD TO ZERO" and suggests that market makers may "nuke their 'market-making' loans at the first millisecond of the TGE" to buy back much lower (sub 1B FDV). 2. THE BRIDGE: This indicates a strong conviction that the asset is fundamentally overvalued and faces a significant, imminent catalyst for a price collapse at its Token Generation Event (TGE) due to coordinated selling by insiders/market makers. 3. THE VERDICT: The thesis is a high-conviction short on MONAD, anticipating massive sell pressure at its market debut from key stakeholders.

The tweet highlights

1. THE FACT: The speaker claims Monad's presale is struggling to fill after 4 days, the launch timing is poor, and that 99% of presale buyers will sell immediately at the Token Generation Event (TGE). They explicitly state "Monad to ZERO". 2. THE BRIDGE: A struggling presale indicates weak demand. The expectation of massive, immediate sell-pressure from early investors at launch will likely overwhelm any initial buy-side interest, causing a sharp price drop. 3. THE VERDICT: Short or avoid Monad at its TGE due to anticipated heavy selling pressure from presale participants and negative sentiment surrounding the launch.

1. THE FACT: The Monad public sale is progressing slowly, having not reached its cap after 2.5 days, which the speaker calls "kinda crazy." Another speaker (@bitcoinduke, 41511) notes that "investor confidence is still kinda weak" and that prediction markets are pricing in low odds of a highly successful raise. 2. THE BRIDGE: A public sale that underperforms expectations is a strong negative signal, indicating a mismatch between the project's valuation and market demand. This can lead to poor price performance post-launch as early investors may look to exit. 3. THE VERDICT: Avoid exposure to Monad due to its underperforming public sale, which signals weak investor demand and raises concerns about its post-launch market performance.

1. THE FACT: The speaker states, "Monad down horrendous lol". 2. THE BRIDGE: This is a strong negative sentiment, implying the asset is performing very poorly and the speaker expects this trend to continue or is mocking its decline. 3. THE VERDICT: The speaker is bearish on Monad's price action, suggesting a short or avoid position.

1. THE FACT: The speaker observes a lack of retail interest in the Monad sale and highlights high APYs available for voting "NO" on the proposed valuations, labeling the 1.2B "NO" vote as "SAFE" with 550% APY. 2. THE BRIDGE: A high, "safe" yield for betting against a proposal implies a strong market consensus that the proposal will fail. This presents a yield-generating opportunity by taking the consensus side against what is perceived as an overvaluation. 3. THE VERDICT: The speaker is effectively shorting the Monad sale's proposed valuation by advocating for a "NO" vote, which they believe is a safe, high-yield trade.