Long-duration government bonds Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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Price change since each call, adjusted for long/short direction. Results calculated:
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11:43
Sep 10
Sep 10
Bonds offer income; favor short end.
Bonds now offer attractive income after the rate backup, and the speaker argues investors should be tactical rather than wedded to positions. She has been following the short end of curves, mainly 2-5 years, because very long duration is unattractive almost anywhere, while 7-10 year tenors could become more interesting as the curve flattens into 2027.
MED
16:30
Sep 03
Sep 03
Avoid excessive bond duration.
Rising yields hurt existing long-duration bondholders but improve expected returns for new buyers. Since the adjustment may not be over and yields may break new resistance, investors should distinguish earning an attractive coupon from taking excessive duration.
MED
17:30
Aug 20
Aug 20
Long-duration bonds no longer diversify portfolios
Because supply-driven inflation risks have changed the stock-bond relationship, long-duration government bonds no longer provide the same diversification they did in the 2010s; their role is now income rather than duration.
HIGH
10:02
Aug 17
Aug 17
Favor real assets over long-duration bonds.
A desire not to hold duration, driven by long-term inflation and fiscal concerns, has made the underweight in bonds significant; if the environment is more inflationary, real assets are the alternative, and this also explains the concentration in tech.
HIGH
17:39
Jun 29
Jun 29
Systematic inflation makes bonds poor investments
Going forward, we are likely to end up with systematic inflation rather than the deflation of the late 19th century. As a result, being a bond investor is not going to be a good place to be because interest rates will constantly be spiking up.
MED
11:37
May 11
May 11
Uncomfortable with duration risk.
We model the term premium for all major bond markets and see that the UK 10-year term premium is the highest at around 2%, driven by political uncertainty. The absolute yield may look attractive, but the political premium is unforecastable and we feel uncomfortable with duration risk; we want to stay underweight duration.
MED
06:45
Apr 29
Apr 29
Avoid long-duration bonds.
Given persistent inflation and global rate hikes, avoid long-duration bond exposure. The portfolio should be positioned away from duration risk.
MED
About Long-duration government bonds Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks Long-duration government bonds across 4 sources: 0 bullish vs 0 bearish calls from 7 authors. Historical directional balance: 0% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 7 total trade ideas tracked. Latest voices: Lauren van Biljon, Pablo Gil, Mike Pyle.