China's Economic Woes Mount as Growth Weakens Across the Board | The Pulse 8/17/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 17, 2026 at 10:02  |  48:14  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Michael Metcalfe — Head of Macro Strategy, State Street Global Markets
Yu Jie — Senior Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House
Will Kennedy — EMEA News Director, Bloomberg
Bella Far — Reporter, Bloomberg Finance
Tom Metcalf — Reporter, Bloomberg Opinion
Rebecca Choong Wilkins — Reporter, Bloomberg
Abeer — Middle East and Africa Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

The Pulse covers weak US data and Fed rate expectations before moving to Middle East escalation and oil-market risks. It also examines China's sluggish activity data and Beijing's technology self-reliance push, plus corporate stories including 13F filings and Commerzbank-UniCredit. Key market implications include AI/tech leadership, underweight duration, and potential oil price pressure from Strait of Hormuz risks.

  • Weak US data reduced Fed rate-hike bets, lifting Treasuries and weighing on the dollar.
  • Michael Metcalfe sees continued US dollar accumulation, AI/tech leadership, and underweight duration favoring real assets.
  • China's July activity data disappointed across the board, reviving stimulus debate but expectations remain measured.
  • Yu Jie argues Beijing is prioritizing technology self-reliance regardless of weak growth.
  • Middle East escalation and Strait of Hormuz attacks keep oil markets on edge, though bypass flows cap Brent below $90.
  • 13F filings show Berkshire adding to Delta and Alphabet.
  • German officials are open to selling a Commerzbank stake to UniCredit, making a deal more likely.
  • Climate events are disrupting European energy infrastructure.
Ideas
Michael Metcalfe Head of Macro Strategy, State Street Global Markets 3:12
Investors keep adding U.S. dollar exposure.
State Street positioning data show investors have been happy to own and increase exposure to the U.S. dollar for the past 18 months, so the fear is not a broad 'sell America' theme; there is notable concern about long-duration U.S. assets and gilts.
USD MED
Michael Metcalfe Head of Macro Strategy, State Street Global Markets 4:02
Watch US equities near yield threshold.
Empirically U.S. equities typically start to struggle when long-term yields rise above 5%; the market is not quite at that dangerous point yet, so the setup is one to monitor.
SPY MED
Michael Metcalfe Head of Macro Strategy, State Street Global Markets 4:27
AI and US tech leadership continues.
AI and U.S. tech have been the credible trade for years and remain one of the most credible trades in the last month; after earnings, the trade has been reinforced as the conventional leadership trade.
AI XLK HIGH
Michael Metcalfe Head of Macro Strategy, State Street Global Markets 13:22
Favor real assets over long-duration bonds.
A desire not to hold duration, driven by long-term inflation and fiscal concerns, has made the underweight in bonds significant; if the environment is more inflationary, real assets are the alternative, and this also explains the concentration in tech.
Long-duration government bonds HIGH
Michael Metcalfe Head of Macro Strategy, State Street Global Markets 13:22
Favor real assets over long-duration bonds.
A desire not to hold duration, driven by long-term inflation and fiscal concerns, has made the underweight in bonds significant; if the environment is more inflationary, real assets are the alternative, and this also explains the concentration in tech.
GLD HIGH
Bella Far Reporter, Bloomberg Finance 16:13
Berkshire doubles down on Alphabet, Delta.
Berkshire Hathaway's latest 13F shows its new CEO appears to be doubling down, adding to its stakes in Delta and Alphabet, with Alphabet now the third-largest holding.
DAL GOOG LOW
Tom Metcalf Reporter, Bloomberg Opinion 17:15
Commerzbank-UniCredit deal path opens.
German government officials are now taking a more pragmatic approach toward UniCredit and are open to discussing a sale of the state's Commerzbank stake; the government stake is unlikely to be used to block a deal, making a transaction more likely if the banks can agree terms.
CRZBY UNCRY MED
Yu Jie Senior Research Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme, Chatham House 27:15
China prioritizes technology self-reliance.
Beijing's five-year plan signals a much higher priority on technology self-reliance, with significant national resources pivoted into it; regardless of weak quarterly economic data, the policy focus will remain technology competition with the United States.
CQQQ MED
Will Kennedy EMEA News Director, Bloomberg 43:05
Watch Brent on Hormuz supply risks.
Brent is under $90 and rangebound because pipelines bypassing Hormuz and covert ship-to-ship transfers are keeping enough oil flowing, but as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains in conflict, $100 oil cannot be ruled out.
BNO MED
Up Next
1:16:02
Uniswap Is Building The Liquidity Network For Everything | Hayden Adams
Empire · Aug 17
44:57
Real Rally Begins.. The Momentum for KOSPI 8000 is 'This' / What are the undervalued earnings stocks foreigners have already bought? | Han Jiyoung, Research Fellow (Full Version)
815 Money Talk (815머니톡) · Aug 17
21:28
Sell Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix "at this time" "Prepare Plan B" / After semiconductors, it's "here"... "This sector" will see a surge in supply and demand | Director Jeon In-gu
815 Money Talk (815머니톡) · Aug 17
3:16
It's Not Looking Great for The Dollar: 3-Minutes MLIV
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 17
45:59
Massive Oil Spill Threatens Oman Coast | Horizons Middle East & Africa 8/17/2026
Bloomberg Markets · Aug 17

This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 17, 2026, features Michael Metcalfe, Bella Far, Tom Metcalf, Yu Jie, Will Kennedy discussing USD, SPY, AI, XLK, Long-duration government bonds, GLD, DAL, GOOG, CRZBY, UNCRY, CQQQ, BNO. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Michael Metcalfe, Bella Far, Tom Metcalf, Yu Jie, Will Kennedy  · Tickers: USD, SPY, AI, XLK, Long-duration government bonds, GLD, DAL, GOOG, CRZBY, UNCRY, CQQQ, BNO