GR GRPN Groupon, Inc. Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Author admits forgetting about Groupon but calls it probably bullish, implying a positive view on the stock.

Groupon trades at ~$25.53 with ~$858M market cap, but stripping out SumUp stake (~$268M) and net cash leaves operating business at ~$731M, or ~7.7x 2026 EBITDA. Management is executing cost cuts (Project Foundry, saving $20-25M annually) and plans to buy back shares aggressively into a float that is ~56% short. If purchase frequency increases from 2.4x to just 3.5x by 2030 (below comps), EBITDA could rise from ~$95M to ~$300M. Combined with a shrinking share count (33.6M → 24M) and short covering, the author’s base case target is ~$85 (24-month) and DCF fair value ~$74 today. The bull case reaches >$190. A highly asymmetric risk/reward play on operational turnaround, hidden assets, and a short squeeze catalyst from aggressive buybacks. Downside is roughly flat to $23 if frequency stalls, offering a free call option on improvement. Frequency fails to inflect; marketing costs creep; SumUp IPO slips or reprices lower; free cash flow remains Q4-concentrated; convert notes at $54.04 could dilute if stock rises above that level.

Groupon returned to billings growth (+7% in 2025), FCF positive two years running; new consumer platform boosting International Local Revenue +19% in Q1 2026; Project Foundry to cut ~15% headcount with $20–25M annualized savings; short interest ~50–60% of float, buyback authorization of $300M (~$215M remaining). The market has left GRPN for dead, but improving UI/UX should attract younger discount‑savvy users and lift purchase frequency (currently ~2/year). Combined with cost cuts and a likely SumUp IPO unlock, FCF yield approaches 10% on guidance. Extreme short interest + active buybacks create asymmetric upside. A deeply undervalued turnaround with multiple catalysts (platform rollout, AI cost savings, short squeeze, SumUp monetization) that are not priced in. Negative equity perception could spook investors; execution on platform migration in North America may disappoint; units continue falling if consumer weakens; SumUp IPO delays or lower valuation; short interest may stay elevated without positive earnings surprise.

Groupon announced a restructuring plan to cut nearly a quarter of its workforce, but the tweet reports the news without expressing a forward-looking opinion on the stock.

One highly upvoted comment (+6) states "GRPN going to strangle the shorties next week." Groupon has a history of short squeezes and high short interest. The comment implies a coordinated or organic squeeze is expected. A short-term long position on GRPN capitalizing on potential gamma squeeze and retail momentum. No other comments support the move; low liquidity or fundamental deterioration may cap upside. Positive sentiment is solely from one user.

Comments mention GRPN “going up 1 cent a minute” and “the squeeze is starting,” though with lower upvotes and more speculative language. The meme-stock-like price action (steady small gains) and squeeze chatter could attract momentum, but the community is not fully committed. GRPN may have a short-term squeeze play, but the lack of high-conviction posts and the flat broader market make this a low-confidence watch. The squeeze narrative is often overhyped; GRPN has no fundamental catalyst; the thread’s main focus is on broader market fear.

Buy GRPN on technical breakout above $19 resistance; chart improvement and bottoming pattern suggest near-term upside momentum.

Days to cover hit 9 per Fintel, shares available dropped to 75–100k, borrow rate trending up toward 1.13%. Shorts are running out of ammunition while buyers hold the line. The last metric (borrow rate) is moving in the right direction for a squeeze. High cost-to-borrow and limited share availability create squeeze potential; community sees a setup despite choppy price action. Borrow rate still low (~1.13%); squeeze only works if volume spikes, and the stock has been chopping sideways.

Author presents four counter-arguments to bears: 1) NA local billings are growing, 2) a $245M buyback is large relative to market cap (<$500M), 3) a 1.79% stake in SumUp could be worth ~$179M if SumUp files for IPO, 4) CEO has high incentive alignment with personal purchases at $11.30 and Performance Stock Units vesting up to $82. The market is pricing GRPN as a dying business, ignoring these positive catalysts and asset value, creating a mispricing opportunity. GRPN is fundamentally undervalued with multiple near-term catalysts for price appreciation. Core business could resume decline; SumUp IPO may not happen or may disappoint; buyback may not be executed effectively; bearish analyst reports (e.g., Goldman's $10 target) could pressure stock.

Groupon's outlook was not good for the coming year. Ahead of earnings Groupon was among the most shorted stocks among small caps, and that reflected in yesterday's and the stock today down 10%. Poor forward guidance confirms the bearish thesis held by short sellers. Deteriorating fundamentals in a challenging consumer environment will continue to pressure the stock, leading to further downside as turnaround efforts fail to materialize. A weak outlook and heavy short interest validation make Groupon a SHORT. A surprise buyout offer or a sudden short squeeze if the broader small-cap market rallies unexpectedly.