EX EXEL Exelixis Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

FDA approved Handa’s generic cabozantinib; Exelixis withdrew its Delaware lawsuit and its FDA petition failed. Exelixis is still near ATH because the negative news is mostly only in Taiwanese sources and not yet repriced by U.S. markets. Generic competition should pressure Exelixis’ ~$2B annual Cabometyx revenue, making the current valuation vulnerable. Generic launch may be delayed, patent protection may hold for many indications, market may never reprice, and option expiry could be too soon.

The author is shorting Exelixis, citing a r/stock post claiming a generic version of its main income source just received approval. The mechanism is that generic competition erodes the branded drug's revenue, and the catalyst is underappreciated because the relevant press releases originated from Taiwan and flew under the radar. The author frames this as a contrarian, under-covered short opportunity.

Author claims Exelixis derives nearly all revenue (~$2B/yr) from cabozantinib (CABOMETYX) and that the FDA granted full approval to a Handa generic on 9/3, clearing it to sell in the US immediately. He argues EXEL quietly withdrew its Delaware patent suit against Handa on 8/31 and its FDA citizen petition failed, so the ~20% rally on 'patent protection until 2030' headlines is wrong. The catalyst is Wall Street recognizing the generic launch, likely within days, since the news was only published in Taiwan with no English coverage; main risk is that the market has already priced it in or the generic launch is delayed.