^K ^KQ11 Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

KOSDAQ lacks trading volume (under 7.5T KRW) and institutional/pension funds are starting to sell into the rally. It's risky to chase KOSDAQ here; it is better to focus on KOSPI where foreign and trust buying is aligned with the index.

KOSDAQ index needs to break and hold above 1050, ideally 1100, before confirming a bullish reversal; the current rally is driven by a few semiconductor equipment names, and broad momentum is lacking, so it is better to wait for confirmation before adding to KOSDAQ ETFs.

KOSDAQ is structurally unattractive. There are too many companies, many lack real earnings, and stronger names move to the KOSPI. The speaker says the government should speed up delistings and that investors should not be overly persuaded by KOSDAQ valuation rebound stories.

The KOSDAQ should remain strong in May because the National Growth Fund is expected to launch in June, preemptive buying by foreigners and later ETF inflows should support growth stocks, and ETF buying tends to accelerate as prices rise.

Yeom is bullish on KOSDAQ for the year because it is driven by liquidity and momentum rather than valuation, and the government's policy support for the KOSDAQ market remains intact despite the price decline. He cites continued activation measures, delisting and side-grade reforms, and possible pension-fund incentives, and argues that once war risks ease the market can revisit these policies. He suggests investors who are underwater on KOSDAQ active ETFs can add rather than worry and expects the index to break its prior high, though a new large-cap leader is still needed.

When foreign and domestic institutional investors buy simultaneously through program trades, the index rises but prior themes weaken, with large caps in semiconductors, autos, holding companies, and securities leading. The speaker advises keeping about 70% of exposure in index-related large caps while the index rises, and only rotating toward themes if the index stalls; KOSDAQ and smaller themes are relatively less attractive in this regime.

He changed his market view more positive after confirming that ships are transiting Hormuz again, reducing supply-chain pressure. He says investors should not panic-sell, cash holders can buy dips around negotiations, and the market itself is positive.

The Middle East conflict risk has likely peaked, the market has fully recovered, and the pause compressed rather than damaged economic and corporate activity. Manufacturing and semiconductor momentum should continue into the second half, so Korean equities are normalizing from an abnormal war discount and the uptrend is just beginning.

When KOSPI semiconductors are strong, KOSDAQ relatively loses steam. Current leadership is KOSPI large caps, especially semiconductors, supported by foreign futures buying, so the speaker favors KOSPI large caps over KOSDAQ.

KOSDAQ large caps and bio/battery stocks are lagging, but they are near support and can rally once rate-cut expectations and post-war risk-on return; catalysts are needed first.

KOSDAQ is weak and unable to rise because trust/accounting shocks from Sam Chun Dang Pharm and ITCEN are still weighing on sentiment and making new fund inflows difficult. Confidence recovery is likely to take time.

The US-Iran ceasefire removes the main geopolitical risk, oil prices fall, and US futures and the Korea ETF EWY rally sharply. Lee Kwon-hee says he is positioned for a rise in KOSPI and KOSDAQ with leverage and expects short covering to reinforce the move.

KOSDAQ was expected to outperform KOSPI on policy and ETF supply, but Sam Chun Dang Pharma and biotech weakness reversed that trend. If biotech sentiment stabilizes and batteries or semiconductor materials strengthen, KOSDAQ can recover.

KOSDAQ lagged KOSPI despite the strong market, but if KOSPI has already re-rated and pension/foreign flows broaden, KOSDAQ should catch up later.

KOSDAQ has lagged the KOSPI rally, but as the KOSPI has moved sharply higher and pension funds first fill KOSPI allocations, the KOSDAQ may catch up later as flows broaden.

If Korean bond yields fall toward 2.8-3.0% as Bank of Korea concerns over FX and real estate ease, growth stocks should benefit and KOSDAQ can move more elastically than KOSPI.

The National Pension Service's 2026 benchmark plan is expected to raise KOSDAQ's weight to roughly the same 11% level as KOSPI, which could drive at least 10 trillion won of inflows. Because KOSDAQ's total market cap is only around 600 trillion won—similar to SK hynix—that flow is meaningful; Baek says investors should not ignore KOSDAQ, should gradually increase weight, and expects KOSDAQ to rise quickly, potentially reaching 3,000 within the year.

The government has set a KOSDAQ 3000 target and is encouraging institutional and pension-fund buying to grow the KOSDAQ market. Institutional supply has led since mid-January while foreign investors have been absent, signaling a shift from a foreign-led to an institution-led Korean market.

In a regime of higher risk premiums and volatility, theme-driven small/mid caps and leveraged bets are dangerous; many investors who chase daily themes can give back gains. Focus should stay on quality large caps.

KOSDAQ needs policy support to reach 1,300; without it, the market may be overheated and take longer to rise. A Shinhan report argues that shifting about 10 percentage points of household loans toward corporate and venture capital could lift potential growth by 0.3 percentage points, and the KRW 150T National Growth Fund should be implemented quickly. The policy beneficiaries are Korean robotics, AI, bio, aerospace, and defense.

Pharma and biotech merits are fading. Well-known retail-held names are weak, and April/May academic conferences are key catalysts; if clinical updates do not lift prices, the sector should be deprioritized. KOSDAQ has overheated via leveraged ETF inflows, so KOSPI is safer.

The Korean market is the strongest globally because liquidity is ample and margin financing is not overheating: deposits have risen while credit balances remain near 30 trillion won, so pullbacks are less likely to trigger forced sell-offs. Pre-holiday supply pressure may be offset by holiday stock talk and post-holiday re-entry, with a fuller rally likely after the Lunar New Year and strength potentially lasting into March/April absent external shocks. The index may be range-bound, but stock-specific opportunities remain strong.

KOSDAQ remains supported by continued ETF and institutional inflows; early program buying suggested steady demand, and although KOSPI was stronger because of earnings, KOSDAQ is still okay and small caps may rotate as the market stabilizes.

The previous day's sharp Korean market decline was an overreaction and a minor wave rather than a fundamental break. Foreign selling looked like a test, retail buying absorbed it, and a learning effect should make the downside firmer. February volatility may stay high, but such external-variable-driven dips should be bought rather than sold, and KOSDAQ may be stronger than expected.

Lee stresses that KOSDAQ institutional net buying is extremely strong, exceeding 1 trillion won and repeatedly absorbing pullbacks, which supports the KOSDAQ market.

The Korean market is in its best mood in nearly 20 years, with KOSPI and KOSDAQ at all-time highs but without the euphoric top-like behavior seen in past cycles. Policy trust has improved, liquidity is abundant through ETF inflows and profit-taking rotation from Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, the won is strengthening, and bad news is being bought. He sees no clear red light globally and expects the market to continue grinding higher, dismissing yen carry-trade unwind fears.

KOSPI should stay stronger than KOSDAQ because its large caps are favored by domestic and foreign investors, while KOSDAQ is weighted toward pharma, biotech, and secondary-battery materials and components that are relatively weak. KOSDAQ may key-match or follow KOSPI, but its composition makes it hard for it to outperform, especially while activation measures also require cleaning out bad companies.

KOSDAQ and small caps are lagging badly, with ADR near 70 while KOSPI breaks 5,000. If the rally broadens, KOSDAQ and small caps could catch up, likely led by secondary batteries or semiconductor equipment/materials if bio rests.

KOSDAQ needs KOSPI saturation, NPS benchmark rebalancing, and policy support before a sustained rotation; related policy catalysts are likely before June.

February policy events, JPMorgan healthcare catalysts, KOSDAQ support measures, and NPS benchmark changes favor a KOSDAQ bio rotation.