SW

Simon Waever 5.0 4 ideas

Head of Research, Paradigm
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Per mention Per thesis
ⓘ First mention per (ticker, direction)
Layout Default A B C D
Total Picks
3
Avg YTD
Best
Worst
Winrate (avg)
67%
Long / Short
3 / 0
Themes
MACRO
3
Theme: Stance:
Ticker Mentions Stance Conv Entry P&L YTD Theme Thesis (click to expand) Mentioned Src
EEM ×1 LONG HIGH $62.82 Macro EM has built resilience through credible policy responses to recent shocks, and the year as a whole should be good for EM assets assuming a trajectory of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, with external imbalances contained and mechanisms to deal with energy price shocks. Apr 21 YOUTUBE
ILF ×1 LONG HIGH $37.74 Macro Latin America is a key winner, reinforced by the Iran conflict, because the region is physically removed from the Middle East, has many large commodity exporters, and benefits from political realignment with the US. Specific positive catalysts include Argentina's structural reforms and FX purchases, and Venezuela's re-engagement with the IMF. Apr 21 YOUTUBE
EMB ×1 LONG MED $96.15 Macro Within Emerging Markets, energy exporters should outperform energy importers in an $80 oil price environment, which is a sweet spot for EM sovereign dollar bonds. Differentiation will pick up, and policy space varies significantly among importers. Apr 21 YOUTUBE
Best Calls
No winning calls yet
Worst Calls
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MACRO
3
EM assets should perform well this year.
EM has built resilience through credible policy responses to recent shocks, and the year as a whole should be good for EM assets assuming a trajectory of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, with external imbalances contained and mechanisms to deal with energy price shocks.
EEM HIGH Morgan Stanley Apr 21, 20:39
Head of Research, Paradigm
Latin America is a key winner.
Latin America is a key winner, reinforced by the Iran conflict, because the region is physically removed from the Middle East, has many large commodity exporters, and benefits from political realignment with the US. Specific positive catalysts include Argentina's structural reforms and FX purchases, and Venezuela's re-engagement with the IMF.
ILF HIGH Morgan Stanley Apr 21, 20:39
Head of Research, Paradigm
EM energy exporters outperform importers.
Within Emerging Markets, energy exporters should outperform energy importers in an $80 oil price environment, which is a sweet spot for EM sovereign dollar bonds. Differentiation will pick up, and policy space varies significantly among importers.
EMB HIGH Morgan Stanley Apr 21, 20:39
Head of Research, Paradigm
US dollar may weaken on Fed cuts.
The US dollar may weaken quickly if the market prices in more Fed cuts, particularly in a scenario of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, leading to a return to trading dollar weakness.
USD HIGH Morgan Stanley Apr 21, 20:39
Head of Research, Paradigm
Positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
EEM LONG $62.82 Apr 21
ILF LONG $37.74 Apr 21
EMB LONG $96.15 Apr 21
Simon Waever (Head of Research, Paradigm) | 4 trade ideas tracked | USD, EEM, ILF, EMB | YouTube | Buzzberg