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Simon Waever 5.0 4 ideas

Head of Research, Paradigm
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EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
EM has built resilience through credible policy responses to recent shocks, and the year as a whole should be good for EM assets assuming a trajectory of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, with external imbalances contained and mechanisms to deal with energy price shocks.
Macro  · Apr 21 · YOUTUBE
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LONG HIGH
ILF
iShares Latin America 40 ETF
Latin America is a key winner, reinforced by the Iran conflict, because the region is physically removed from the Middle East, has many large commodity exporters, and benefits from political realignment with the US. Specific positive catalysts include Argentina's structural reforms and FX purchases, and Venezuela's re-engagement with the IMF.
Macro  · Apr 21 · YOUTUBE
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LONG HIGH
EMB
iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF
Within Emerging Markets, energy exporters should outperform energy importers in an $80 oil price environment, which is a sweet spot for EM sovereign dollar bonds. Differentiation will pick up, and policy space varies significantly among importers.
Macro  · Apr 21 · YOUTUBE
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LONG MED
Positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
EEM LONG $62.82 Apr 21
ILF LONG $37.74 Apr 21
EMB LONG $96.15 Apr 21
▶ YouTube Warnings and Winners From the IMF Meetings
EM assets should perform well this year.
EM has built resilience through credible policy responses to recent shocks, and the year as a whole should be good for EM assets assuming a trajectory of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, with external imbalances contained and mechanisms to deal with energy price shocks.
EEM HIGH Morgan Stanley Apr 21, 20:39
Simon Waever
Head of Research, Paradigm
▶ YouTube Warnings and Winners From the IMF Meetings
Latin America is a key winner.
Latin America is a key winner, reinforced by the Iran conflict, because the region is physically removed from the Middle East, has many large commodity exporters, and benefits from political realignment with the US. Specific positive catalysts include Argentina's structural reforms and FX purchases, and Venezuela's re-engagement with the IMF.
ILF HIGH Morgan Stanley Apr 21, 20:39
Simon Waever
Head of Research, Paradigm
▶ YouTube Warnings and Winners From the IMF Meetings
EM energy exporters outperform importers.
Within Emerging Markets, energy exporters should outperform energy importers in an $80 oil price environment, which is a sweet spot for EM sovereign dollar bonds. Differentiation will pick up, and policy space varies significantly among importers.
EMB HIGH Morgan Stanley Apr 21, 20:39
Simon Waever
Head of Research, Paradigm
▶ YouTube Warnings and Winners From the IMF Meetings
US dollar may weaken on Fed cuts.
The US dollar may weaken quickly if the market prices in more Fed cuts, particularly in a scenario of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, leading to a return to trading dollar weakness.
USD HIGH Morgan Stanley Apr 21, 20:39
Simon Waever
Head of Research, Paradigm
Simon Waever (Head of Research, Paradigm) | 4 trade ideas tracked | USD, EEM, ILF, EMB | YouTube | Buzzberg