SW

Simon Waever 5.0 4 ideas

Head of Research, Paradigm
Loading…
Per mention Per thesis
ⓘ First mention per (ticker, direction)
Layout Default A B C D
Total Picks
3
3 long
Avg YTD
—
equal-weighted
Best Performer
—
—
Worst Performer
—
—
Winrate 30d
—
—
Theme:
Stance:
#TickerNameStanceConvEntryP&L YTDThemeThesisFirst MentionedSrc
1 EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF LONG HIGH $62.82 Macro EM has built resilience through credible policy responses to recent shocks, and … Apr 21 YOUTUBE
2 ILF iShares Latin America 40 ETF LONG HIGH $37.74 Macro Latin America is a key winner, reinforced by the Iran conflict, because the regi… Apr 21 YOUTUBE
3 EMB iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF LONG MED $96.15 Macro Within Emerging Markets, energy exporters should outperform energy importers in … Apr 21 YOUTUBE
Positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
EEM LONG $62.82 Apr 21
ILF LONG $37.74 Apr 21
EMB LONG $96.15 Apr 21
▶ YouTube Warnings and Winners From the IMF Meetings
EM assets should perform well this year.
EM has built resilience through credible policy responses to recent shocks, and the year as a whole should be good for EM assets assuming a trajectory of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, with external imbalances contained and mechanisms to deal with energy price shocks.
EEM HIGH Morgan Stanley Apr 21, 20:39
Simon Waever
Head of Research, Paradigm
▶ YouTube Warnings and Winners From the IMF Meetings
Latin America is a key winner.
Latin America is a key winner, reinforced by the Iran conflict, because the region is physically removed from the Middle East, has many large commodity exporters, and benefits from political realignment with the US. Specific positive catalysts include Argentina's structural reforms and FX purchases, and Venezuela's re-engagement with the IMF.
ILF HIGH Morgan Stanley Apr 21, 20:39
Simon Waever
Head of Research, Paradigm
▶ YouTube Warnings and Winners From the IMF Meetings
EM energy exporters outperform importers.
Within Emerging Markets, energy exporters should outperform energy importers in an $80 oil price environment, which is a sweet spot for EM sovereign dollar bonds. Differentiation will pick up, and policy space varies significantly among importers.
EMB HIGH Morgan Stanley Apr 21, 20:39
Simon Waever
Head of Research, Paradigm
▶ YouTube Warnings and Winners From the IMF Meetings
US dollar may weaken on Fed cuts.
The US dollar may weaken quickly if the market prices in more Fed cuts, particularly in a scenario of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, leading to a return to trading dollar weakness.
USD HIGH Morgan Stanley Apr 21, 20:39
Simon Waever
Head of Research, Paradigm
Simon Waever (Head of Research, Paradigm) | 4 trade ideas tracked | USD, EEM, ILF, EMB | YouTube | Buzzberg