Quinn Thompson 5.0 94 ideas
Co-Host, Forward Guidance / Founder, Lekker Capital
After 1 day
49%winrate
+0.2% avg
38W / 39L · 77/82 ideas
After 1 week
66%winrate
+0.8% avg
48W / 25L · 73/82 ideas
After 1 month
65%winrate
+3.5% avg
24W / 13L · 37/82 ideas
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
By sector
ETF
67 ideas
+5.3%
Stock
17 ideas
+1.0%
Crypto
5 ideas
-0.3%
Commodity
3 ideas
-8.8%
currency
1 ideas
+0.2%
index
1 ideas
+0.1%
Top tickers (by frequency)
TLT
15 ideas
100% W
+3.3%
SPY
14 ideas
40% W
+0.8%
NVDA
7 ideas
67% W
-0.4%
USO
6 ideas
100% W
+43.1%
BTC
5 ideas
50% W
-0.3%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
USO LONG
+58.4%
The author believes the escalating Middle East conflict involving Iran and Saudi Arabia will not resolve quickly, increa...
Feb 28
DBC LONG
+16.6%
The author expects commodities to rise ahead of official inflation data, suggesting a long position in a broad commodity...
Feb 27
QQQ SHORT
+8.1%
The author presents a bearish, contrarian view on the AI sector, arguing its growth is dependent on favorable policy and...
Feb 27
Worst calls
GOLD LONG
-8.8%
I want to agree given the US is the world's most dominant energy power as the largest oil and gas producer globally.
Ho...
Mar 08
GDX LONG
-7.5%
The author has entered a significant long position in the gold miners ETF, signaling strong conviction in a near-term up...
Mar 06
SOXX SHORT
-6.4%
Semis have topped for a very long time.
Mar 06
Focus on AI, gold, energy, and transports.
Concentrate on sectors that have underlying demand regardless of the macro bipolarity, such as AI infrastructure, gold, energy stocks (which are buying back stock), and Dow transports, because they are less affected by the extreme market structure and macro volatility.
Co-Host, Forward Guidance...
Expect sovereign bond yields to rise ("blow out"), implying lower bond prices, as governments may engineer crises to suppress economic activity and create bond demand.
TLT
MED
Apr 10, 17:48
Co-Host, Forward Guidance...
Expects MARA stock to decline further as the distressed miner is forced to liquidate its remaining Bitcoin holdings at a loss, creating selling pressure.
MARA
HIGH
Apr 10, 17:12
Co-Host, Forward Guidance...
Expects further downside for MSTR, citing misplaced hype and bagholder complacency despite an 80% drawdown from highs.
MSTR
HIGH
Apr 10, 15:54
Co-Host, Forward Guidance...
The divergence between software stocks and Bitcoin has historically been a bearish signal for crypto, and the author expects BTC to follow software lower rather than decouple.
BTC
HIGH
Apr 10, 13:57
Co-Host, Forward Guidance...
Expect bond prices to decline (yields to rise) because inflation is structurally problematic and set to worsen in the coming months.
TLT
HIGH
Apr 10, 13:01
Co-Host, Forward Guidance...
The author implies the current software/Bitcoin divergence will lead to downside for Bitcoin, as it has consistently been a bearish signal over the past year.
BTC
MED
Apr 09, 19:53
Co-Host, Forward Guidance...
Execute a relative value trade by going long Chinese equities and short Japanese equities, expecting China to outperform Japan.
FXI
MED
Apr 08, 17:26
Co-Host, Forward Guidance...
Geopolitical delays in reopening the Strait of Hormuz will continue to exert downward pressure on the broader equity market due to sustained risk and carrying costs.
SPY
MED
Apr 07, 20:50
Co-Host, Forward Guidance...
Speaker declares "bonds are awful here awful awful awful" and discusses the bear-flattening dynamic. Inflation from oil and supply chain surcharges is persistent, forcing expectations of restrictive policy for longer. This pushes short-term yields up more than long-term (bear flattening), hurting total return. Bonds are an unattractive asset class as the market prices in sustained inflation and no near-term relief from the Fed. A severe credit event or recession that triggers a flight to safety and bull steepening.
TLT
Forward Guidance
Apr 03, 07:00
Co-Host, Forward Guidance...
Speaker highlights the ratio of Dow Transports to QQQ, noting it is at a historic low comparable to 2000, and states "this line should mean revert to the upside." Capital is rotating from tech into "real things" needed for the economy. Rising manufacturing PMIs and industrial metals support increased economic activity benefiting transports. The sector is set for potential mean reversion and outperformance versus tech, making it a key area to monitor for long opportunities. A deep economic slowdown that crushes industrial activity and freight demand.
JETS
Forward Guidance
Apr 03, 07:00
Co-Host, Forward Guidance...
Speaker explicitly loaded up on front-dated oil contracts based on the thesis the Iran-Israel war is not ending imminently. Oil is stuck in an "inflationary corridor" (~$100-$110) where prices fuel CPI increases but haven't yet crushed demand. Supply response is muted due to suppressed price signals and hedging. The setup favors being long, especially in the front of the curve, as geopolitical and structural factors support higher prices. A sudden geopolitical de-escalation or a policy-driven release of strategic reserves.
WTI
Forward Guidance
Apr 03, 07:00
Co-Host, Forward Guidance...