Hyperscaler long-end bond issuance is now as large as US government issuance; AI capex is increasingly debt-funded and is likely to accelerate nonlinearly next year. With already high US debt levels and competition for capital, long-end Treasury yields are pressured higher, and continued hyperscaler issuance could add another percentage point and create nonlinear stress.
Gold finds persistent central-bank and ETF support.
Gold has decoupled from its old real-rate and dollar correlation since 2022/2023, driven first by Chinese and broader central-bank buying, then by speculative and ETF flows, especially from Europe. That persistent demand should support gold on a multi-quarter horizon even if real rates continue higher, as investors seek a hedge while avoiding long bonds.
Oil has been a multi-month geopolitical supply shock, not a short interlude; the administration hoped WTI would fall back to 70 from 100 but it has not, and there is no solution around the corner. Clients are worried oil can continue higher and officials have hinted this could be a multi-year problem.
Long-term investors are targeting AI's derivative needs: energy, power plants, grid infrastructure, and metals such as copper. No matter which AI model or company wins, the buildout needs huge amounts of power and physical materials, making these infrastructure inputs persistent AI-capex beneficiaries.