James Jeffrey

President Trump set a 15-day deadline for Iran to negotiate or face consequences. The US is amassing its largest military presence in the region since the early 2000s. Markets are currently pricing in a modest ~$5 risk premium. The "Second-Order" risk is not just a strike, but an Iranian retaliation targeting regional energy infrastructure or a blockade (even partial) of the Strait of Hormuz. As the 15-day clock ticks down, volatility and speculative buying in energy futures will likely increase regardless of the final outcome. LONG oil futures or energy equities as a short-term geopolitical hedge. A diplomatic breakthrough would immediately remove the risk premium, sending oil back toward $66/bbl.

President Trump set a 15-day deadline for Iran to negotiate or face consequences. The US is amassing its largest military presence in the region since the early 2000s. Markets are currently pricing in a modest ~$5 risk premium. The "Second-Order" risk is not just a strike, but an Iranian retaliation targeting regional energy infrastructure or a blockade (even partial) of the Strait of Hormuz. As the 15-day clock ticks down, volatility and speculative buying in energy futures will likely increase regardless of the final outcome. LONG oil futures or energy equities as a short-term geopolitical hedge. A diplomatic breakthrough would immediately remove the risk premium, sending oil back toward $66/bbl.