Calls
2
James Jeffrey
Fellow, Washington Institute (Former US Ambassador)
Win Rate
100.0%
return
+30.7%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Feb 20
$80.85
+55.6%
President Trump set a 15-day deadline for Iran to negotiate or face consequences. The US is amassing its largest military presence in the region since the early 2000s. Markets are currently pricing in a modest ~$5 risk premium. The "Second-Order" risk is not just a strike, but an Iranian retaliation targeting regional energy infrastructure or a blockade (even partial) of the Strait of Hormuz. As the 15-day clock ticks down, volatility and speculative buying in energy futures will likely increase regardless of the final outcome. LONG oil futures or energy equities as a short-term geopolitical hedge. A diplomatic breakthrough would immediately remove the risk premium, sending oil back toward $66/bbl.
President Trump set a 15-day deadline for Iran to negotiate or face consequences. The US is amassing its largest military presence in the region since the early 2000s. Markets are currently pricing in a modest ~$5 risk premium. The "Second-Order" risk is not just a strike, but an Iranian retaliation targeting regional energy infrastructure or a blockade (even partial) of the Strait of Hormuz. As the 15-day clock ticks down, volatility and speculative buying in energy futures will likely increase regardless of the final outcome. LONG oil futures or energy equities as a short-term geopolitical hedge. A diplomatic breakthrough would immediately remove the risk premium, sending oil back toward $66/bbl.
Commodities
Long
Feb 20
$54.88
+5.7%
President Trump set a 15-day deadline for Iran to negotiate or face consequences. The US is amassing its largest military presence in the region since the early 2000s. Markets are currently pricing in a modest ~$5 risk premium. The "Second-Order" risk is not just a strike, but an Iranian retaliation targeting regional energy infrastructure or a blockade (even partial) of the Strait of Hormuz. As the 15-day clock ticks down, volatility and speculative buying in energy futures will likely increase regardless of the final outcome. LONG oil futures or energy equities as a short-term geopolitical hedge. A diplomatic breakthrough would immediately remove the risk premium, sending oil back toward $66/bbl.
President Trump set a 15-day deadline for Iran to negotiate or face consequences. The US is amassing its largest military presence in the region since the early 2000s. Markets are currently pricing in a modest ~$5 risk premium. The "Second-Order" risk is not just a strike, but an Iranian retaliation targeting regional energy infrastructure or a blockade (even partial) of the Strait of Hormuz. As the 15-day clock ticks down, volatility and speculative buying in energy futures will likely increase regardless of the final outcome. LONG oil futures or energy equities as a short-term geopolitical hedge. A diplomatic breakthrough would immediately remove the risk premium, sending oil back toward $66/bbl.
Thematic ETFs
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James Jeffrey has 2 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 2 tickers since February 2026. Most covered: XLE, BNO.
