Holger Zschäpitz 5.0 31 ideas

Financial Journalist, Die Welt
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Per mention Per thesis
ⓘ Each mention is one idea
After 1 day
62%winrate
+1.1% avg
10W / 6L · 16/6 ideas
After 1 week
75%winrate
+2.5% avg
12W / 4L · 16/6 ideas
After 1 month
53%winrate
+4.4% avg
9W / 8L · 17/6 ideas
After 3 months
N/A
3/15 min ideas
31 total mentions · 6 actionable (4 long · 2 short) · 2 watch · 23 neutral
Win-rate includes long + short only. Short wins when price falls.
— winrate (30d)  ·  — W / — L  ·  2 positions (30d)
Avg: —
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
BAS.DE LONG 54.02 EUR Apr 22
EWG SHORT $39.90 Apr 06
By theme
Macro
17 ideas -1.0%
Other
7 ideas -29.9%
Energy
4 ideas +42.3%
Fintech
2 ideas +11.7%
Crypto
1 ideas +6.4%
Top tickers (by frequency)
EWG 10 ideas
25% W -1.4%
USO 4 ideas
100% W +42.3%
QQQ 1 ideas
100% W +3.8%
RJF 1 ideas
100% W +11.7%
SILVER 1 ideas
0% W -61.3%
Best and worst 30-day returns
Price change 30 days after entry. Extreme outliers excluded.
Best calls
USO LONG +55.5%
The author expects oil prices to rise due to escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which could disrupt su...
Mar 01
EWG SHORT -2.2%
A significant GDP forecast downgrade from a major bank, citing multiple headwinds (war, weather, weak retail), points to...
Mar 11
EWG LONG -10.1%
The author synthesizes multiple improving data points (Ifo, Bundesbank Activity Index, PMI) to build a forward-looking c...
Feb 23
Worst calls
EWG LONG -10.1%
The author synthesizes multiple improving data points (Ifo, Bundesbank Activity Index, PMI) to build a forward-looking c...
Feb 23
EWG SHORT -2.2%
A significant GDP forecast downgrade from a major bank, citing multiple headwinds (war, weather, weak retail), points to...
Mar 11
USO LONG +55.5%
The author expects oil prices to rise due to escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which could disrupt su...
Mar 01
Oil prices rise as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for a third month after stalled talks, threatening global energy supply.
USO MED Apr 26, 23:47
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 26, 2026 at 23:47
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
Financial Journalist, Die Welt
Deutsche Bank cuts German full-year growth forecast in half and expects Q2 GDP contraction.
EWG HIGH Apr 25, 07:52
"Deutsche Bank now expects GDP to fall by 0.2% in Q2 and has cut its full-year growth forecast in half to 0.5%."
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 25, 2026 at 07:52
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
Financial Journalist, Die Welt
Deutsche Bank has downgraded its German economic growth forecasts due to leading indicators suggesting a potential contraction in the second quarter.
DB HIGH Apr 25, 07:52
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner Source ↗
April 25, 2026 at 07:52
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
Financial Journalist, Die Welt
Buy BASF and Wacker Chemie as the Iran conflict disrupts naphtha supply to Asian competitors, restoring pricing power and margins for German chemical producers in the near term.
BAS.DE WCH HIGH Apr 22, 10:40
"With Asian rivals starved of naphtha, BASF and Wacker Chemie are reclaiming the pricing power they lost over the past 6yrs."
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner ⏲ short-term Source ↗
April 22, 2026 at 10:40
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
Short German equities (EWG) as the underlying economy is weakening due to a hollowing out of productive manufacturing jobs and an unsustainable reliance on state-funded growth.
EWG MED Apr 06, 08:14
"Headline employment is holding up, but productive jobs in manufacturing are disappearing. Growth is coming in state-funded sectors, while the country’s export engine keeps losing ground."
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
April 06, 2026 at 08:14
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
Key indicators like the Taylor Rule and rising long-term inflation expectations suggest the ECB is behind the curve, creating pressure for a more hawkish policy stance that would strengthen the Euro.
EUR MED Mar 19, 08:53
"According to the Taylor Rule – which gauges where interest rates should be based on inflation and employment – rates are currently about 1.1 ppts too low."
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 19, 2026 at 08:53
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
The German government is misallocating borrowed capital towards consumption instead of productive investment, which is structurally bearish for the German economy.
EWG MED Mar 18, 08:41
"Acc to Ifo, public borrowing rose by €24.3bn in 2025, but federal investment increased by just €1.3bn compared w/2024."
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 18, 2026 at 08:41
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
Short the German market as persistently high energy prices are a major headwind that could halt its economic recovery.
EWG MED Mar 14, 07:32
"There is growing concern that persistently high energy prices could derail fragile economic recovery."
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 14, 2026 at 07:32
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
The Ifo Institute's stagflationary forecast for Germany, citing lower growth and higher inflation, presents a bearish outlook for the country's economy.
EWG MED Mar 13, 13:01
"The Ifo Institute has lowered its growth forecast for Germany for 2026 from 1% to 0.8% and raised its inflation projection from 2% to 2.2%."
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner ⏲ long-term Source ↗
March 13, 2026 at 13:01
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
Geopolitical risk from tanker attacks in the Middle East is creating upward pressure on oil prices, suggesting a break of the $100/bbl level is likely.
USO MED Mar 12, 01:47
"Brent crude #oil is flirting dangerously close to the $100/bbl level once again after two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, underscoring the broader risks to energy assets across the Middle East..."
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner ⏲ short-term Source ↗
March 12, 2026 at 01:47
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
A significant GDP forecast downgrade from a major bank, citing multiple headwinds (war, weather, weak retail), points to a deteriorating economic outlook for Germany.
EWG HIGH Mar 11, 18:20
"OUCH! Deutsche Bank has lowered its growth forecast for #Germany this year from 1.5% to 1%."
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 11, 2026 at 18:20
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
A deeper look at German trade data reveals that the headline surplus is a sign of a slowing domestic economy and collapsing import demand, which is bearish for German equities.
EWG HIGH Mar 10, 08:24
"The widening surplus was therefore driven not by stronger foreign demand, but by weaker domestic demand. This is less a sign of export strength and more a reflection of a slowing economy –"
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 10, 2026 at 08:24
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
Short airline stocks as soaring oil prices will severely undermine profitability, presenting a major headwind for the sector.
JETS MED Mar 06, 23:38
"Airline stocks have slipped into a bear market as soaring oil prices pose what analysts call an “existential"
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner ⏲ medium-term Source ↗
March 06, 2026 at 23:38
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) OOPS! UK 10y yields jump 13bps on energy shock. https://t.co/Wl4W9ONQWl Tweet Link
UK10Y Mar 06, 15:25
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner Source ↗
March 06, 2026 at 15:25
𝕏 @Schuldensuehner
Holger Zschäpitz (Financial Journalist, Die Welt) | 31 trade ideas tracked | EWG, USO, QQQ, RJF, SILVER | Twitter | Buzzberg