Derek Halpenny

Head of Research, MUFG Bank
@derekhalpenny · tracked since Feb 2026
Calls 1 2 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
7d 0
30d 0
90d 0
Best Calls
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Worst Calls
FXY long -3.4%
Most Mentioned
JPY ×1
FXY ×1
Recent Calls
FXY long 3 months ago
Win Rate 0% Long 1 Short 0
Win Rate
7d 0%
30d 0%
90d 0%
Average Return -3.4% Long Return -3.4% Short Return -
Average Return
7d -1.0%
30d -2.9%
90d -2.8%
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FXY Invesco ... Invesco CurrencySha...
Long
Feb 18
$59.38
-3.4%
MUFG expects the Fed to deliver three rate cuts and views the labor market as "mixed at best." Halpenny argues Trump will not raise tariffs further because he needs to deliver on cost-of-living promises. The market has priced in a "Trump Trade" (stronger USD due to tariffs/inflation). If Trump refrains from tariffs and the Fed cuts rates to support a softening labor market, the interest rate differential supporting the USD collapses. Short USD (Long JPY). Halpenny explicitly predicts a "notable drop" in USD/JPY later in the year and a 5% drop in the Dollar Index by 2026. Inflation re-accelerates, forcing the Fed to hold or hike; Trump aggressively implements universal tariffs.
MUFG expects the Fed to deliver three rate cuts and views the labor market as "mixed at best." Halpenny argues Trump will not raise tariffs further because he needs to deliver on cost-of-living promises. The market has priced in a "Trump Trade" (stronger USD due to tariffs/inflation). If Trump refrains from tariffs and the Fed cuts rates to support a softening labor market, the interest rate differential supporting the USD collapses. Short USD (Long JPY). Halpenny explicitly predicts a "notable drop" in USD/JPY later in the year and a 5% drop in the Dollar Index by 2026. Inflation re-accelerates, forcing the Fed to hold or hike; Trump aggressively implements universal tariffs.
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