Chamath Palihapitiya 8.7 63 ideas
CEO, Social Capital
After 1 day
37%winrate
-0.7% avg
27W / 46L · 73/94 ideas
After 1 week
45%winrate
-1.3% avg
33W / 41L · 74/94 ideas
After 1 month
43%winrate
-0.9% avg
22W / 29L · 51/94 ideas
Recent positions
TickerDirEntryP&LDate
By sector
Stock
36 ideas
-1.7%
ETF
16 ideas
-0.1%
Commodity
4 ideas
+2.1%
private
3 ideas
Crypto
2 ideas
+5.7%
sector
2 ideas
Top tickers (by frequency)
TSLA
5 ideas
0% W
-7.0%
NVDA
4 ideas
100% W
+0.2%
QQQ
4 ideas
0% W
-1.3%
GOOG
3 ideas
0% W
-1.7%
MSFT
3 ideas
50% W
-4.3%
Best and worst calls
Best calls
XLE LONG
+10.8%
Chamath cites data showing 40% of data center projects face local opposition ("Bananas" movement), causing the industry ...
Feb 28
SSNC SHORT
+9.1%
Most usage of Software Factory are companies that don’t want to publish their work.
That said, I asked 8090 to replace...
Mar 08
BTC LONG
+5.7%
"The general trend since 1700 to now [for Debt to GDP] is up and to the right... You got to find ways of hedging and own...
Feb 13
Worst calls
RACE LONG
-11.8%
"There's a Ferrari experience that's different from every other car... In places like China and India, they're always go...
Feb 13
TSLA LONG
-11.1%
The Tesla Robotaxi business model is highly profitable, with a projected free cash flow payback period of less than two ...
Mar 07
MSFT LONG
-8.8%
Emil Michael confirms that Google (Gemini) and OpenAI (Microsoft) have agreed to "all lawful use" terms, unlike Anthropi...
Mar 06
Avoid high-multiple tech stocks as AI-driven disruption risks structurally compress future growth premiums and expose vulnerabilities in debt loads and stock-based compensation.
QQQ
HIGH
Apr 14, 14:27
Host, All-In Podcast /...
Chamath warned that functional quantum computing is 5-7 years away, capable of breaking current encryption (SHA-256, ECDSA). He called crypto (Bitcoin) the "most obvious honeypot" for a non-state actor to target first. If a quantum attack drains the most visible crypto assets, it could crash confidence and prices industry-wide. The crypto community has successfully migrated encryption before, but the coming technological lift (re-architecting wallets, nodes) is complex and must start now. Until the Bitcoin ecosystem demonstrates a clear, executed path to quantum resistance, it carries a catastrophic, asymmetric risk that is not priced in. Prudent investors should avoid exposure until this mitigation is proven. Quantum computing progress is slower than forecast. The crypto community organizes and executes a timely, seamless transition to quantum-resistant encryption.
BTC
All-In Podcast
Apr 03, 21:49
Host, All-In Podcast /...
Chamath ordered the IPO urgency: SpaceX first, then OpenAI and Anthropic must "file quickly, get out and just get the money." He believes trillions in new market cap will cause tech sector P/E multiples to converge downward toward non-tech P/Es. A flood of giant IPOs will compete for finite capital. The first issuers (SpaceX) will be consumed eagerly, but later ones risk poor reception as investor appetite fills and the market digests the AGI/ASI risk to all other software moats. Timing is critical. These three companies have the most urgent need for capital and the strongest stories. Delaying increases the risk of being caught in a capital crunch and a sector-wide multiple compression. The IPO window closes suddenly due to macro events (e.g., Iran war escalation) or a recession. AGI proof points fail to materialize, causing loss of investor faith in the narrative.
Host, All-In Podcast /...
Chamath stated "99.999%" probability Tesla and SpaceX will merge. The SpaceX IPO provides a validated mark-to-market valuation, which simplifies governance and minimizes "shareholder noise" and litigation risk for Elon Musk. A merger would combine brain trusts, cross-pollinate advanced materials and manufacturing knowledge, and consolidate overlapping projects (AI, robotics, terafabs), creating a dominant vertically integrated industrial and technology conglomerate. The synergy and defensive rationalization (governance, litigation) make the combined entity fundamentally stronger. The market currently values them separately; a merger is seen as a value-unlocking event. Regulatory rejection of a merger between two of the world's largest companies. Shareholder dissent from either side.
TSLA
All-In Podcast
Apr 03, 21:49
Host, All-In Podcast /...
Chamath ordered the IPO urgency: SpaceX first, then OpenAI and Anthropic must "file quickly, get out and just get the money." He believes trillions in new market cap will cause tech sector P/E multiples to converge downward toward non-tech P/Es. A flood of giant IPOs will compete for finite capital. The first issuers (SpaceX) will be consumed eagerly, but later ones risk poor reception as investor appetite fills and the market digests the AGI/ASI risk to all other software moats. Timing is critical. These three companies have the most urgent need for capital and the strongest stories. Delaying increases the risk of being caught in a capital crunch and a sector-wide multiple compression. The IPO window closes suddenly due to macro events (e.g., Iran war escalation) or a recession. AGI proof points fail to materialize, causing loss of investor faith in the narrative.
SPACEX
All-In Podcast
Apr 03, 21:49
Host, All-In Podcast /...
Advanced AI image-generation models could significantly erode Instagram's network effects and competitive advantage, presenting a structural bear case for Meta.
META
MED
Mar 28, 03:15
Host, All-In Podcast /...
Chamath notes that mega-cap tech companies (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet) have seen valuation multiples increase while SaaS multiples compress, indicating market perception of monopolistically durable cash flows. In an AI-disruptive world, markets are flighting to quality and perceived durable cash flows from strong moats (brands, network effects, ecosystems). Long due to relative safety and sustained cash flow durability amid uncertainty. Disruption from AI agents or regulatory changes that erode moats.
Host, All-In Podcast /...
Chamath presents chart showing SaaS companies like Snowflake had high valuation multiples (e.g., ~100 years to repay via free cash flow in 2023) that are now compressing sharply. AI disruption threatens the durability of cash flows, leading markets to rerate these companies based on perceived fragility in a world of potential superintelligence. Avoid due to valuation reset and increased discount rates applied to future cash flows. If AI disruption is slower or less severe than expected, cash flows may remain durable.
Host, All-In Podcast /...
Meta lost two major lawsuits in one week with large damages ($375M for child exploitation, millions for addictive design), and tort lawyers are targeting social media companies. These verdicts circumvent Section 230 protections via product liability claims, potentially opening floodgates for more litigation and significant financial liability. Avoid due to elevated legal and regulatory risks that could impact financials and operations. Effective age-gating or parental control implementations that mitigate harm and reduce liability.
META
All-In Podcast
Mar 27, 20:21
Host, All-In Podcast /...
The AI sector is experiencing a venture capital bubble driven by social proof over diligence, which will ultimately lead to numerous company failures.
QQQ
MED
Mar 20, 16:55