Oil is trading at ~$71, but the guest estimates "fair value is about $60." Demand is not booming, and non-OPEC supply is healthy. The current price includes a $10+ geopolitical premium. If the Middle East situation stabilizes (or simply doesn't result in supply disruption), the fundamental overhang of weak demand and strong supply will force prices down to the $60 fair value. SHORT (Medium-term structural view). Actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz or kinetic strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure (Short-term spike risk).