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Feb 18
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—
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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The speaker highlights a clip where the OpenAI CFO suggests a "government backstop" is needed for their trillion-dollar spending commitments, and explicitly states, "The United States government... is going to categorize AI as a military proxy... and throw infinite money at compute." If the US views AI as a Cold War-style arms race, fiscal constraints on AI spending will vanish. The government will subsidize the "ecosystem of banks" and tech giants to ensure the US reaches AGI first. This guarantees revenue for the infrastructure providers and model builders regardless of immediate commercial viability. LONG US AI infrastructure and Hyperscalers as beneficiaries of unlimited government defense spending. Political gridlock preventing subsidies; US actually losing the technical race despite spending. |
Thread Guy
It's Time To Start Chinamaxxing..
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Feb 18
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—
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AVOID
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Mitchell Green
Founder of Lead Edge Capital
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Green explicitly states we are in a "Giant AI CapEx Bubble" and that the amount of money being spent on infrastructure is "mind-boggling" relative to current revenue. Overbuilding is rampant. Similar to the telecom fiber bubble, capacity is being built that may not be utilized immediately, leading to massive depreciation cycles that will hurt the owners of this hardware/infrastructure. AVOID. The risk/reward for pure-play infrastructure build-out is skewed to the downside if utilization lags. If AI adoption accelerates exponentially (AGI), the demand for compute could outstrip even this massive build-out. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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@DeItaone
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Barclays projects the AI robotics market to reach $1 trillion by 2035, driven by autonomous vehicles, drones, and humanoid robots, indicating strong long-term growth potential for companies in this sector. |
@DeItaone
DECADE OF THE ROBOT: AI ROBOTICS MARKET COULD...
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Feb 17
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—
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"Demand for compute is just the most up only J curve of all time. It might never stop... Whether you're being useful or not... You're burning the same [__] compute." The utility of the output doesn't matter for the hardware provider. HFTs, startups, and enterprises are "cooking tokens" at an exponential rate. This indiscriminate consumption ensures sustained, compounding revenue for the underlying infrastructure and chip providers. LONG. Physical power constraints (electricity) or a sudden burst in the AI valuation bubble. |
Thread Guy
This OpenAI Acquisition Changes Everything..
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Feb 17
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—
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SHORT
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@zerohedge
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UBS AI baskets are performing poorly ("not pretty"), suggesting a bearish outlook for the sector. |
@zerohedge
UBS AI baskets: not pretty https://t.co/re1oZ...
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Feb 16
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—
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LONG
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Thread Guy
Crypto influencer, independent
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"All compute cost explode... demand for compute is just the most upon onlyly JC curve of all time." If 100% of code is now written by AI (as claimed by TG's sources), the volume of software being created will explode exponentially. This software requires agents to run, and agents require massive compute. The demand for tokens and processing power is effectively infinite. LONG the entire compute stack (Hardware, Chips, Energy). Physical constraints on energy or chip manufacturing capacity. |
Thread Guy
LIVE: OPENAI BOUGHT OPENCLAW! ANTHROPIC IS CO...
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Feb 14
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—
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LONG
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@MichaelAArouet
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That’s quite simple:
1. Eliminate regulations throttling European industries
2. End Net Zero, make energy affordable again
3. Limit uncontrolled immigration eroding social systems
4. Lower taxes t |
@MichaelAArouet
That’s quite simple:
1. Eliminate regulation...
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Feb 12
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—
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LONG
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Jonny Fine
Head of Investment Grade Credit at Goldman Sachs
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We are witnessing the "largest infrastructure build in human history" with CapEx revisions up $150B in two weeks. While Fine discusses the *issuers* (Big Tech), the second-order effect of $150B in *new* spending is a direct revenue injection for the companies building the physical and digital infrastructure (chips, data centers, energy). The funding is secured; the spending is guaranteed. LONG (Infrastructure providers). Overbuilding leading to capacity gluts in future years. |
CNBC
Goldman Sachs’ Jonny Fine: We will see four r...
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Feb 12
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—
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LONG
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Robert Frank
Wealth Editor, CNBC
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Eric Schmidt (Hill Spire) and Jeff Bezos (Bezos Expeditions) were the top two investors. Schmidt focused on AI voice and Fusion; Bezos focused on AI robotics and energy-efficient AI compute. The founders of the Web2 era are deploying their personal fortunes into the "Physical Layer" of AI (Robotics) and the "Efficiency Layer" (Compute/Energy). This suggests the next wave of value creation is not just in LLMs, but in embodied AI and the hardware required to run it sustainably. Long exposure to robotics and next-gen AI hardware infrastructure. High failure rate of early-stage deep tech; disconnect between private venture trends and public market timelines. |
CNBC
Inside the Family Office 15 List: Here's what...
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Feb 12
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—
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LONG
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Alex Bores
NY State Assembly Member
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Bores highlights New York State's $400 million investment to build its own "compute cluster" (Empire AI) and explicitly states, "We should be doing that same thing in investing in the capacity at the federal level." If Bores' plan for a federal version of the "Raise Act" includes the government purchasing its own compute capacity to expedite research and create a public option, the U.S. government becomes a massive direct buyer of AI hardware (GPUs). This adds a new, sovereign layer of demand for chipmakers (NVDA) beyond private sector capex. LONG hardware/infrastructure providers as government-sovereign AI spending ramps up. Legislative gridlock; federal budget constraints. |
CNBC
NY Assemblyman Alex Bores on AI regulation: N...
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Feb 12
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—
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LONG
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Peter Boockvar
Chief Investment Officer, BFG Wealth Partners
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"Investors are now beginning to separate out the builders of the infrastructure of this AI from the potential applications... One's likely to do much better than the other." In a gold rush, sell shovels. The "Builders" (Infrastructure) have tangible demand right now. The "Applications" (Software) face uncertain monetization and margin compression. The safe trade is the infrastructure layer. Long the builders of the physical and digital AI backbone. Overbuilding of infrastructure leads to a capacity glut (similar to fiber in 2000). |
CNBC
Panel weighs AI disruption, margin pressure a...
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Feb 11
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—
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LONG
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Stuart Kaiser
Head of US Equity Trading Strategy, Citi
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The market is punishing "Spenders" (Hyperscalers spending billions) and rewarding "Enablers." Investors want exposure to the companies selling the picks and shovels (Memory, Power Gen) rather than the companies burning cash on CapEx with uncertain ROI. LONG AI Infrastructure/Memory; AVOID Hyperscalers (Spenders). If AI power usage/chip demand undershoots, the trade collapses. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 02/11/2026
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Feb 11
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—
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AVOID
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@krugermacro
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The current AI market in early 2026 is compared to the early 2017 crypto market, suggesting potential overvaluation or a bubble that might burst. |
@krugermacro
Early 2026 AI is giving me early 2017 crypto ...
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Feb 10
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—
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LONG
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Stephanie Link
Chief Investment Strategist, Hightower
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Mag-7 capital expenditure is hitting $761 billion this year, a 75% increase year-over-year. This massive spending is effectively a private-sector stimulus package that dwarfs government policy. This capital must flow somewhere—specifically to hardware, data centers, and productivity software. Long the mega-cap tech names spending the money and the semiconductor/infrastructure plays receiving it. ROI on AI spend disappoints, causing a rapid contraction in CapEx budgets. |
CNBC
Here's how to trade the surge in stocks
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Feb 09
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—
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LONG
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Deirdre Bosa
Anchor/Reporter, CNBC Tech Check
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The massive increase in software creation by agents is a "big data point for the AI infrastructure bulls." Even if software stocks struggle, the underlying "plumbing" is essential. AI agents writing code and building databases require immense amounts of computing power and chips. The demand is real, regardless of current market sentiment. Charts showing iOS app releases and GitHub coding output are both "going vertical." Market sentiment may temporarily disconnect from the fundamental demand for compute. |
CNBC
Databricks finishes $5 billion funding round ...
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Feb 09
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—
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WATCH
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Alex Kantrowitz
Founder of Big Technology
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The market is in a period of high volatility regarding AI stocks because investors cannot yet identify the ultimate winners. Uncertainty is high. Investors don't know if value will accrue to chipmakers, model builders, or app developers. Consequently, earnings reports will cause "wild swings" as the market aggressively reprices based on limited data. Tech giants are spending $50B over expectations on CapEx, signaling a massive, blind bet on transformation. Companies overspending on CapEx without immediate returns could punish stock prices. |
CNBC
Market rotation holds as AI uncertainty keeps...
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Feb 07
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—
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LONG
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krugermacro
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The speaker cites an argument that a significant productivity boom is underway, driven by real-world implementation outpacing official statistics, implying strong growth for innovative sectors. |
@krugermacro
On this recent interview Warsh argues we are ...
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Feb 07
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—
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LONG
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@krugermacro
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The speaker believes the AI productivity boom is real and just beginning, suggesting significant future growth for companies involved in AI. |
@krugermacro
The AI productivity boom is real and just get...
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Feb 03
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SHORT
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@abcampbell
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The speaker predicts an "AI Air Pocket" where capital shifts from buybacks to capex, and revenue growth is years away, leading to lower valuations for AI-related investments as investors are unwilling to finance the gap indefinitely. |
@abcampbell
The AI “Air Pocket” is here.
It’s a simple s...
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Jan 31
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—
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LONG
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Luca Netz
CEO of Pudgy Penguins
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"It's way more advantageous to go bid a AI [stock] on Tradfi that's building some sort of silicon wafer... than it is [crypto assets]." The "Crypto x AI" intersection is currently vaporware/narrative only. The *real* value accrual is happening in the physical infrastructure (chips/wafers) required to run the models that everyone is using (Claude/OpenAI). Until crypto offers a tangible utility to AI, capital flows will remain in TradFi hardware. LONG AI Hardware/Semiconductors (e.g., NVDA/TSM - implied). Sector rotation out of tech if AI monetization stalls. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
How Ethereum May Have One-Upped Bitcoin in On...
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